As the market continues to recover from its lows in late December, I’m seeing more and more reports and opinions that while economic growth in the United States may begin to slow (and based on some measurements, that might already be starting to happen), it isn’t expected to actually reverse and begin contracting for as much as the next two years. That is leading some analysts and investors to believe that the market should not only recover all of its decline to near-bear market levels last year, but push back to new highs.
A healthy U.S. economy is usually good for practically every sector; one area that usually performs well, especially in the extended stages of an economic cycle is the Leisure Products industry in the Consumer Discretionary sector. These late stages are usually reflected by increasing wages, and low unemployment – elements that usually work in the favor of companies in this industry. These are businesses that offer products and services that I like to think fit into the “nice to have” category of consumer consumption; but since they don’t fit into the “have to have” niche they’re hardly the kinds of stocks that I would categorize as defensive in nature. That usually means that in the late economic stages of growth when these businesses are showing strong signs of growth, they are at increased risk of a major market reversal.
Polaris Industries Inc (PII) is a stock that most of us have probably heard of; if you’re a weekend warrior, it’s even more likely that you own or use their products. The company is one of the leading manufacturers of powersports vehicles, and so whether you’re thinking about playing off-road, on water, or in the snow, it’s a good bet their products are part of your plans. Over the last eight months, the stock is down nearly -32% from its highs around $132 per share; that fact is something that would make most value-oriented investors think seriously about taking a position in the stock.
Does the fact the U.S. economy remains at the far end of a ten-year expansion period mean that the downside risk is greater than the upside potential? That’s hard to say; the company has some interesting fundamental strengths working in its favor, and the stock’s downward trend has also pushed the stock into some interesting valuation levels. Let’s run through the numbers so you can make your own decision.
Fundamental and Value Profile
Polaris Industries Inc. designs, engineers and manufactures powersports vehicles, which include Off-Road Vehicles (ORV), including All-Terrain Vehicles (ATV) and side-by-side vehicles for recreational and utility use; Snowmobiles, Motorcycles and Global Adjacent Markets vehicles, including Work and Transportation and military vehicles. The Company’s segments include ORV/Snowmobiles, Motorcycles, Global Adjacent Markets, and Other. Its ORVs includes the RZR sport side-by-side, the RANGER utility side-by-side, the GENERAL crossover side-by-side, the Sportsman ATV and the Polaris ACE. It produces a range of snowmobiles consisting of approximately 40 models. It offers a range of motorcycles under Indian motorcycles and Slingshot brands. The Global Adjacent Markets vehicles include low emission vehicles, light duty hauling, passenger vehicles and industrial vehicles. The Other segment includes business of TAP Automotive Holdings, LLC, a manufacturer of off-road Jeep and truck accessories. PII’s current market cap is $5.5 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings increased almost 25%, while revenues increased by about 14%. In the last quarter, both numbers turned negative; earnings declined -1.61%, while revenues decreased nearly -1.5%. The company operates with a narrow margin profile that appears to be improving; over the last twelve months, Net Income during that period was 4.69% of Revenues, but increased in the last quarter, to 5.78% of Revenues.
Free Cash Flow: PII’s free cash flow is about $224.15 million and translates to a Free Cash Flow Yield of 4.22%. This is adequate, if unimpressive.
Dividend Yield: PII’s dividend is $2.44 per share, which translates to an annual yield of about 2.72% at the stock’s current price.
Debt to Equity: PII has a debt/equity ratio of 2.19. This is a high number, but it isn’t that unusually for the Leisure Products industry. Their balance sheet indicates in the last quarter, cash and liquid assets were $183.41 million against $1.87 billion in long-term debt. That could indicate liquidity could be a concern; however the company’s stable margin profile indicates they should be able to service the debt they have without a problem.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but one of the simplest methods that I like uses the stock’s Book Value, which for PII is $14.22 per share. That translates to a Price/Book ratio of 6.29, which is high compared to the Price/Book levels I usually look for. However, the stock’s historical Price/Book ratio is 7.54, which puts a long-term target price around $107. The stock is also currently trading at a discount of about 37% from that price. The company’s overall financial strength, along with the value proposition suggests that there is a strong case to be made for the stock as a long-term opportunity right now.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: This chart traces the stock’s movement over the last year. The diagonal red line traces the stock’s downward trend over last eight months; it also acts as the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. The stock’s rally from the bottom of the trend has pushed the stock more than 20% above its trend low, with immediate support around $84, and major support at around $70. Immediate resistance is at the 38.2% retracement line around $93.50 per share; a break above that point could give the stock room to keep pushing as high as about $101 in the near term, at the resistance shown by the 50% retracement line.
Near-term Keys: If you’re looking for a short-term, bullish trade, look for a break above resistance to $94 as a good signal to buy the stock or to work with call options, with a target price to exit the trade anywhere between $98 and $101 per share. If the stock shows weakness, and pushes below its immediate support at $84, consider shorting the stock or working with put options, with an eye on the trend low around $70. The stock’s value proposition is interesting, and could even be taken as compelling; a push above $130 could significantly increase the chances the stock could retest its highs around $130 in the long term.