Why Morgan Stanley Says Investors May Not Want To Celebrate The Dow’s New All-Time High

Plus, there’s positive news on the trade war front, the world’s most profitable company is finally going public, and Under Armour shares are tanking.

The three major indexes were all up to start the week with the Dow rising 128 points, or 0.5%, to its first all-time high since July. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while the Nasdaq jumped 0.7%.

Stocks rose on the heels of positive news on the trade war front. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that the U.S. is “very far along” with a “phase one” trade deal with China and “there’s no natural reason” the phase one deal between the world’s two largest economies couldn’t be signed this month, while National Security Adviser Robert O-Brien told reporters, “We’re relatively close to an agreement. I’m cautiously optimistic about it.” Ross also said on Sunday that American firms will be granted licenses to sell to Chinese telecom Huawei “very shortly.” In other trade news, China said that it is reviewing locations in the U.S. where Chinese President Xi Jinping would be willing to meet with President Donald Trump to sign the phase one trade pact.

But while the trade war news pushed the Dow to a fresh record, Morgan Stanley warned that investors shouldn’t celebrate too much. According to the firm, the next decade may be a dismal one for both stocks and bonds, with the traditional 60/40 portfolio returning just 4.1% over the next 10 years. Valuation is “far more accurate than any other variable in determining what the 5- or 10-year experience of an investor will be,” said Morgan Stanley strategists including Andrew Sheets and Serena Tang. “And at the moment, that experience looks challenging. The return outlook over the next decade is sobering. Investors face a lower and flatter frontier compared with prior decades, and especially compared to the 10 years post-GFC, when risk-asset prices were sustained by extraordinary monetary policies that are in the process of being unwound.”

Saudi Aramco is finally ready to go public. The world’s most profitable company published an intention to float document yesterday, and will list shares on the Riyadh stock exchange in December. Saudi Aramco president and chief executive, Amin Nasser, said in a statement that the company’s vision “is to be the world’s pre-eminent integrated energy and chemicals company. Our mission is to provide our shareholders with long-term value creation through crude oil price cycles by maintaining our pre-eminence in oil and gas production, capturing additional value across the hydrocarbon value chain and profitably growing our portfolio.” But one of the biggest unknowns so far is the company’s valuation. Goldman Sachs puts it at between $1.6 trillion and $2.3 trillion, while Bank of America pegged it at $1.2 trillion. Saudi Arabia is targeting a valuation of $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion.

McDonald’s shares are down -3% this morning after the fast food giant announced it had fired Chief Executive Steve Easterbrook for having a consensual relationship with an employee, a violation of company policy. The company said that the board determined Easterbrook “demonstrated poor judgment” by engaging in the relationship, while Easterbrook said “this was a mistake. Given the values of the company, I agree with the board that it is time for me to move on.” Easterbrook will be replaced by USA President Chris Kempczinski, who the board has considered the “obvious eventual successor,” though “the timing is clearly much sooner than anticipated,” said Bernstein analyst Sara Senatore. “I am excited to take the reins of this incredible company and grateful for the Board’s confidence in me,” Kempczinski wrote in an email to employees. “I am particularly fortunate to be surrounded by such a talented team as we take this brand into the future.”

Shares of Under Armour are down nearly -17% Monday morning after the company said Sunday night that it has been cooperating with an SEC and Justice Department investigation into its accounting practices for more than two years. “The company began responding in July 2017 to requests for documents and information relating primarily to its accounting practices and related disclosures, and the company firmly believes that its accounting practices and disclosures were appropriate,” a spokesperson for Under Armour said. The athletic apparel and  sneaker maker also lowered its full-year revenue forecast in its earnings report this morning. Company executives declined to comment on the probe during the earnings conference call.

Stocks We’re Watching

El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ: LOCO): Shares of this fast food business rocketed as much as 32% on Friday after the chain topped Wall Street estimates in its Q3 results. El Pollo Loco reported Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 on revenue of $112.1 million, compared to analysts’ expectations of earnings per share of $0.18 on revenue of $109.8 million. CEO Bernard Acoca said in a press release, “Despite a slow start to the quarter, the expansion of our delivery capabilities, focus on value and improved company operations drove systemwide comparable restaurant sales growth of 1.1%, representing our fifth straight quarter of positive systemwide comp growth.”

O2Micro International Ltd. (NASDAQ: OIIM): Shares of this penny stock jumped more than 30% late last week following its earnings report. O2Micro Chairman and CEO Sterling Du said, “The third quarter of 2019 saw strong growth in consumer products as our newer solutions ramp-up in production while we continued to design and provide timely, reliable and quality products. Our battery product lines offer expanding solutions for all lithium battery types and we have seen continuing growth in our TV/Monitor product lines as we further expand into more territory.” Du also added that the company’s management team plans to “provide ongoing growth in a dynamic market and lead O2Micro into long term profitability.”


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