EMN’s ability to grow during recession makes it an interesting value

Any experienced investor, no matter what their investment philosophy is, will undoubtedly tell you that one of the most useful ways they keep track of new opportunities as they come up is by maintaining a watchlist of stocks that they can check on a regular basis. A good, diversified list of stocks in a variety of different industries can be an effective way to keep your investing functional, no matter what the ebb and flow of market sentiment is doing at any given time, since as one industry may be moving out of favor with investors, another will undoubtedly be moving into favor.

The last week has put a lot of people a little more on edge, as concerns that a much-feared second wave of coronavirus is a reality and could blunt any economic progress that has been made since states began reopening for business in the last month or so. Fed chair Jerome Powell seemed to stoke that fear last week when he talked about the Fed’s expectations that a complete economic recovery will be years in the making, requiring the Fed to maintain its accommodative, near-zero interest rate policy for the foreseeable future. As a result, the major indices are all off their latest highs, and most stocks have fallen -10% or more off of their own most recent highs.

One of the challenges comes at the point when market uncertainty and fear leads to mounting selling pressure – enough that the market begins to turn from bad to worse. Whether the rising volatility in the market right now is enough to signal an extension of bear market conditions remains to be seen; as of this writing, the drop in the S&P 500 is a little over -6%. That’s enough to call the drop a pullback from the upward trend the index had been following since hitting a bear market bottom in March, but not enough to call it a correction. Considering the pace and slope of the market’s rally over the last two and a half months, it is entirely natural to see investors take a breath and pull some profits off the table. More often than not, short-term pullbacks are really nothing more than a moderation of the next longer trend. You can think of it as a reset to give that trend a springboard to a longer-term extension.

I’m not 100% confident that will be the case here; however I do see the market forming some support around last week’s low points that coincide with longer-term technical indicators of stabilization. If that’s the case, then a number of the stocks that have followed the market’s drawdown are also setting some interesting new opportunities as well. That includes stocks like Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN), one of the biggest companies in the Chemicals industry. The stock hit its own bear market low at around $34 in March before rallying to a high earlier this month at nearly $78 before sliding back again in the last week to its current price a little below $70. That’s a little more than -10%; it is also enough to put the stock in an interesting technical position that could underline a useful, longer-term opportunity.

While most companies is just about every sector have seen a material impact from COVID-19 on its operations, EMN has actually shown some intriguing improvements in its fundamental profile over the last quarter. That improvement coincides with a still-attractive value proposition that is actually better than it was in pre-pandemic conditions. That means that the technical opportunity could be lining up nicely with a longer-term opportunity that is too good to pass up.

Fundamental and Value Profile

Eastman Chemical Company (Eastman) is an advanced materials and specialty additives company. The Company’s segments include Additives & Functional Products (AFP), Advanced Materials (AM), Chemical Intermediates (CI), and Fibers. In the AFP segment, it manufactures chemicals for products in the coatings, tires, consumables, building and construction, industrial applications, including solar energy markets, animal nutrition, care chemicals, crop protection, and energy markets. In the AM segment, it produces and markets its polymers, films, and plastics with differentiated performance properties for end uses in transportation, consumables, building and construction, durable goods, and health and wellness products. The CI segment leverages large scale and vertical integration from the cellulose and acetyl, olefins, and alkylamines streams to support its specialty operating segments. Its product lines in Fibers segment include Acetate Tow, Acetate Yarn and Acetyl Chemical Products. EMN’s current market cap is $9.3 billion.

Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings increased a little more than 14.6% while revenues dropped about -5.8%. In the last quarter, earnings improved nearly 43% while sales rose a modest 1.6%. The company’s margin profile, which had been narrowing in prior quarters, is showing significant signs of improvement that I think reflect the company’s intentional positioning in defensive-oriented sectors like Consumer Staples. Net Income for the last twelve months was a healthy 8.85% of Revenues, and rose to 11.5% in the most recent quarter.

Free Cash Flow: EMN’s free cash flow is healthy, at $1.26 million. This is a number that has increased significantly since 2017, from about $650 million and from the last quarter at about $1.08 billion. It also translates to a Free Cash Flow yield of nearly 14%.

Debt to Equity: EMN has a debt/equity ratio of .87, implying they use a fair amount of debt, but is generally manageable. The company’s balance sheet indicates their operating profits are more than adequate to service their debt for the time being, with increasing Net Income a good reflection of their improving financial flexibility. Their balance sheet shows $680 million in cash and liquid assets (an improvement from $204 million a quarter ago) versus about $5.4 billion in long-term debt. I think it also noteworthy that while many companies have increased debt to build up cash in the last quarter, EMN’s cash increase came while long-term dropped from about $5.4 billion. That means the increase in liquidity has come from improvements in their operating profile and margins.

Dividend: EMN pays an annual dividend of $2.64 per share, which translates to a yield of about 3.79% at the stock’s current price.

Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target at around $91 per share. That means the stock is trading at a massive discount, with 34% upside from the stock’s current price. I think it also noteworthy that in the last quarter, this same analysis gave me a long-term price target for EMN at around $82 per share.

Technical Profile

Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.

Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The diagonal red line traces the stock’s downward trend from November 2019 to its low in March of this year; it also provides the reference for calculating the Fibonacci retracement levels indicated by the horizontal red lines on the right side of the chart. The stock’s March to June rally saw it peak earlier this month very close to the 88.6% retracement line, at a a high near $78 per share. The stock’s drop in the last week now has it hovering a little above the 61.8% retracement line, where I expect support should lie around $65 per share. If the stock can pivot and move higher at any point from its current price to $65, it should have near-term upside to its recent peak, to at least $77 per share. A drop below $65, would mark a support break that could see the stock fall to next support between $8 and $59, which is roughly inline with the 50% retracement line.

Near-term Keys: The value proposition right now for EMN is very attractive, and the company’s improving fundamental profile makes that value proposition even more intriguing. If you aren’t afraid of the market’s current volatility, and the prospect that EMN could drop lower if uncertainty and fear remains high, this is a stock that I think could offer an excellent long-term opportunity at its current price. If you prefer to work with short-term strategies, I would pay close attention to the stock’s current support level around $65. If the stock stabilizes above $65, and picks up bullish momentum, you could take that as a strong signal to buy the stock or work with call options, using the June peak at around $77 as a useful profit target.  If the stock drops below $65, consider shorting the stock or working with put options, using the 50% retracement line as a reference for a useful profit target around $59 on a bearish trade.


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