It’s been interesting in the last week, with the inauguration of a new President to see how the market has shifted its focus. Considering the often mixed messaging that came from the Trump administration, it isn’t too surprising to think that a President that is expected to act more like – well, more like a President, is something that the market has been using to push to a new set of highs. That has a lot of investors looking ahead to a time when the pandemic is finally in the rear-view mirror and trying to guess what the economic picture will look like. Among other things, that seems to be giving them a reason to focus on cyclical industries and stocks, and away from more defensive-oriented names.
Cyclical stocks are those that are expected to do well when economic conditions are generally healthy, and that will naturally struggle when the economy struggles. One of the core sectors of the economy that fits this description is the Transportation sector, which takes in a broad set of industries, including airlines, railroads, trucking and freight, overseas shipping, and so on.
Uncertainty and volatility amid signs that the economy is is struggling means that you can often find stocks in these industries trading at pretty significant discounts to their not-so-distant highs. That makes them tempting fodder for a contrarian, value-oriented investor. I like to pay attention to these stocks, because their fundamentals can give me some useful clues about their ability to weather an economic downturn. These are also stocks that, like any other, can see big swings from high to low based on nothing more than the market’s expectation for what the economy might do in the near future.
CSX Corporation (CSX) is a good example of the kind of stock I’m referring to. As one of the largest transportation companies in the Road & Rail industry, this is a stock that is very sensitive to a variety of economic dynamics, from commodity and fuel prices to interest rate fluctuations. The collapse of oil prices earlier this year is something that means that fuel costs should generally be lower, which is a good thing; but as economy activity ground to a halt during the second quarter of the year, so too did the demand for transportation services.
From a bear market bottom in March of last year, the stock rebounded like most of the rest of the market as investors acted on the hope that the net economic effect would be temporary; after briefly dropping back in June from a high at around $76, just a little below the stock’s 52-week high near $80, the stock turned back upward in August, extending the stock’s upward trend well past pre-pandemic levels and to a new peak at the beginning of January at around $97.50. The stock has dropped back from that point since, however, with the slide picking up steam after the company’s earnings report at the end of last week and currently putting the stock a little below $87 per share.
Cyclical stocks like CSX are sensitive to the kind of pressure I’ve just outlined, which is why it becomes important to take a critical look at the company’s balance sheet and overall fundamental strength. This is a company with a strong fundamental profile, and a balance sheet that has weathered the pandemic storm remarkably well. That is a positive that bodes well for the company in the long-term, but another question we have to answer is whether the stock’s current trading price represents a compelling enough value under current market conditions to justify taking its long-term opportunity seriously. If it is, the current bearish drop could just be a nice set-up for a new buying opportunity.
Fundamental and Value Profile
CSX Corporation is a transportation company. The Company provides rail-based freight transportation services, including traditional rail service and transport of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. The Company categorizes its products into three primary lines of business: merchandise, intermodal and coal. The Company’s intermodal business links customers to railroads through trucks and terminals. The Company’s merchandise business consists of shipments in markets, such as agricultural and food products, fertilizers, chemicals, automotive, metals and equipment, minerals and forest products. The Company’s coal business transports domestic coal, coke and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers and industrial plants, as well as export coal to deep-water port facilities. CSX has a current market cap of $66.7 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings increase a little over 5%, while sales were -2.08% lower. In the last quarter, earnings grew by a little over 8.3% while sales were about 6.7% higher. CSX operates with a healthy, robust margin profile that has been remarkably resilient; in the last twelve months, Net Income was 26.13% of Revenues, and improved to almost 27% in the last quarter.
Free Cash Flow: CSX’ Free Cash Flow is healthy, at almost $2.7 billion. It is worth noting that while this number declined from $3.55 billion in late 2019, and $3.2 billion in the last quarter, the drawdown has been modest. Their current Free Cash Flow number translates to a Free Cash Flow Yield of 4.02%.
Debt to Equity: CSX has a debt/equity ratio of 1.27. This indicates the company is highly leveraged; but this is also typical of stocks in the Transportation industry. Their balance sheet indicates they have about $3.1 billion in cash and liquid assets against $16.3 billion in long-term debt as of the most recent quarter. CSX’ operating profile suggests there should be no problem servicing the debt they carry.
Dividend: CSX pays an annual dividend of $1.04 per share, which at its current price translates to a dividend yield of about 1.19%. Their dividend payout ratio is also conservative, at less than 33% of their earnings over the last year and has increased from the end of 2019, when it was $.96 per share.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target around $72 per share. That means the stock is overvalued, with -17% upside from its current price, and with a useful bargain price at around $58.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The chart above displays the past year of price activity for CSX. The red diagonal line traces the stock’s upward trend from its bear market low in March at around $47 to its peak earlier this month at about $97.50. It also provides the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. The stock’s bearish momentum has been accelerating, pushing the stock below recent support at around $88 to start this week. Since previous support can become new resistance, $88 is the stock’s immediate resistance point, while new support is around $82 based on previous pivot highs in September and October of last year. A reversal of current momentum, with a push above $88 could see upside to about $93.50 to next resistance, while a drop below $82 should find next support at the 38.2% retracement line at around $78 per share.
Near-term Keys: From a long-term perspective, it’s hard to see a lot of long-term upside in CSX, despite its strong fundamental profile. Based on the fair value analysis I described earlier, the stock wouldn’t offer a compelling value-based price unless it drops to about $58 per share – which is about -33% below the stock’s current price. That means the best opportunities to work with the stock are with short-term, momentum-oriented trades. The stock’s current momentum puts the best probabilities on a bearish trade; consider shorting the stock or buying put options, with a short-term target price at around $82. If the stock reverses that momentum and pushes above $88, consider buying the stock or working with call options, using $93.50 as a good profit target on a bullish trade.