HPE has rallied nearly 35% since the start of October – what does that mean about its value price?

The Tech sector has enjoyed the lion’s share of attention among all segments of the economy for a number of years. That’s been a good thing during bull markets, but it also means the sector really gets pummeled when uncertainty increases.

Since 2020, that attention – driven in no small part by the increasingly central role of cloud-based and remote networking solution providers in facilitating remote workforce solutions –  motivated investors to buy Tech stocks enthusiastically. The flip side of that attention has reared its ugly head this year, as higher interest rates, war in Ukraine, and continued supply chain constraints that started with technology have rippled into multiple segments of the economy. A lot of Tech companies have seen their stock prices plunge this year into their own bear market levels. Over the last couple of months, however the market has rallied off of its latest bear market bottom, and again the Tech sector led the way as investors have seemingly been betting that the U.S. may manage to avoid a legitimate recession.

Since early 2020, companies that focus on the “enterprise” space – where most corporate tech spending has traditionally gone, for products like servers, computers, printers, and the tools to connect them all in a traditional network setting, for example – have struggled to keep up with demand for remote workforce solutions and cloud-based services. While I think that much of the work-from-home element of corporate operations will become a permanent part of business life, there are also signs that for many businesses, back-in-office is becoming an increasing expectation. My research into many of these companies suggests that while many of the companies that operate in the Enterprise space will continue to be pressured, revenues and earnings in many cases have also begun their own recovery. Current geopolitical, economic and market conditions haven’t entirely been reflected in some of those metrics as of yet, which implies that how elements play into the fortunes of companies in the Tech sector for the rest of this year is a risk element that could act as a longer-term headwind to economic health and growth.

That brings us to today’s highlight. Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) is a spin off of Hewlett Packard Corporation (HPQ), and a business that is among those companies that underperformed through most of 2020 but saw strength beginning in September of last year, rising from a low at around $13 to a February 2022 peak at nearly $18. From that point, broader market fears pushed the stock into a new downward trend that found its bottom at around $12 in late September. From that point, the stock has staged a strong rally that peaked to start this month at almost $17 before dropping back a bit to its current price at around $16. The question now is, has the stock rallied past the point of useful value, and are the fundamentals strong enough to support the idea that it should keep moving higher? Let’s find out.

Fundamental and Value Profile

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) is an edge-to-cloud platform-as-a-service company. The Company’s segments include Compute, High Performance Compute & Mission-Critical Systems (HPC & MCS), Storage, Advisory and Professional Services (A & PS), Intelligent Edge, Financial Services (FS), and Corporate Investments. The Compute portfolio offers both general-purpose servers for multi-workload computing and workload-optimized servers. HPC & MCS portfolio offers workload-optimized servers designed to support specific use cases. FS provides investment solutions, such as leasing, financing, information technology (IT) consumption, and utility programs and asset management services, for customers that facilitate technology deployment models and the acquisition of complete IT solutions, including hardware, software and services from HPE and others. Corporate Investments include Hewlett Packard Labs, which is responsible for research and development. HPE has a current market cap of $20.5 billion.

Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the past year, earnings declined by -112%, while sales increased by 7%. In the last quarter, earnings were about -174% lower, while sales rose by 13.24%. The company operated with a  narrow margin profile through 2020 that saw big improvements in 2021, but is showing significant signs of deterioration in the last quarter; over the last twelve months, Net Income was 3.05% of Revenues, and declined sharply to -3.86% in the last quarter. This is a red flag, including the dip to negative Net Income, in particular, that bears watching in the quarters ahead.

Free Cash Flow: HPE’s Free Cash Flow is healthy, at $2.07 billion. On a Free Cash Flow Yield basis, that translates to 9.9%. A year ago, Free Cash Flow was $2.5 billion. The decline since that high point adds weight to the warning signal we see from the company’s Net Income pattern, as continued pressure on margins is likely to erode Free Cash Flow even more.

Debt to Equity: HPE has a debt/equity ratio of .39, which is a conservative number. Their balance sheet shows about $4.2 billion in cash (compared to $3.7 billion a quarter ago) against a little over $7.8 billion in long-term debt. Their operating profits are adequate to service their debt, with health financial flexibility as well, however the latest quarter’s declines in Net Income, if they continue to persist could act as drags on the company’s liquidity. It should be noted that a year ago, long-term debt was around $10.2 billion, meaning that the company has eliminated about $2.4 billion of long-term debt from their balance in that period, with about $1.3 billion being retired in the last quarter.

Dividend: HPE pays a dividend of $.48 per share, which translates to an annual yield of about 2.95% at the stock’s current price. I think that it is also noteworthy that the company has not cut or reduced their dividend; in fact it remains a bit above the $.44 per share payout they maintained until the beginning of 2020, when management increased the dividend to its current level.

Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to worth with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term target at about $19.50 per share. That suggests that even with it’s latest rally, HPE’s stock remains undervalued, with about 20.5% upside from its current price.

Technical Profile

Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.

Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The chart above displays the last year of price activity for HPE. The red diagonal line traces the stock’s downward trend from a high point in January at around $18 to its low in September at around $12. It also provides the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. After pushing to just below $17 to mark immediate resistance there last week, the stock has dropped back toward expected, current support at around $15.50 where the 61.8% retracement line sits. A push above $17 should see the stock test its 52-week high at $18, while a drop below $15.50 should find next support at around $14 where the 38.2% retracement is waiting.

Near-term Keys: HPE’s latest rally has been impressive, which means that the latest pull back from immediate resistance could be setting a nice, technical bullish trade. A bounce off of support anywhere between the stock’s current price and $15.50 could mark a good signal to buy the stock or consider working with call options, using $17 as a useful first exit target and $18 possible if buying pressure increases. A drop below $15.50, on the other hand could be an interesting signal to think about shorting the stock or buying put options, with $14 providing a functional profit target on a bearish trade. The stock’s value proposition, in the meantime, is very tempting. I do see the decrease and push to negative Net Income as a major red flag that has extended over the past three quarters. If you’re willing to be patient, the stock offers an interesting value-based opportunity, however in the near-term the stock could continue to see high levels of volatility.


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