(Bloomberg) — US interest-rate strategists mostly expect that Treasuries will extend their recent rally, dragging yields lower and steepening the curve in the second half of 2023 so long as labor market conditions soften and inflation ebbs. The most bullish forecasts among those published by primary dealer firms — including predictions from Citigroup Inc., Deutsche […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — One of the US bond market’s most widely watched indicators of potential recession risk has reached levels last seen in 2007. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped as much as 12 basis points below the 2-year rate, eclipsing the 9.5-basis-point gap reached in early April. The gap was pared to […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — US Treasuries tumbled, sending 2-year yields surging by the most since 2009, after an unexpected jump in inflation increased speculation the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates more aggressively over the next few months. The surge in consumer prices in May to a fresh four-decade high surprised investors who were looking […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Hedge funds are signaling it may be third time’s a charm as to whether US 10-year yields will climb above 3% to stay. Leveraged funds become net short on the securities at the end of May, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That’s the first time they have […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Treasuries dropped across the curve as higher oil prices added to inflation concerns, and a Federal Reserve official backed additional 50 basis-point rate hikes. US five-year yields jumped as much as 12 basis points to 2.84%, while benchmark 10-year yields climbed 11 basis points to 2.85%. Treasuries also played catch up to other […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Across Wall Street, from BlackRock Inc. to T. Rowe Price Group Inc., some veterans of the bond market’s booms and busts are seeing signs that it’s safe to start buying again. Few are eager to call the bottom just yet, not with inflation still surging at a four-decade high and the Federal Reserve […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasuries tumbled Monday, driving the yield on five-year notes to the highest level since September 2008 amid speculation persistent inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten policy more aggressively. The yield jumped as much as three basis points to 3.11%, extending an advance that has seen the rate more than double […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — The relentless bear market in U.S. Treasury debt is on the cusp of a new phase, with yields across much of the maturity spectrum on course to crack above their 2018 highs and several major potential catalysts to help such a move. Center stage will be April consumer price inflation on Wednesday, forecast […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury trimmed its quarterly sale of longer-term debt for a third straight time, and unexpectedly advised that it may make further reductions, citing “strong” federal tax revenues. Dealers had widely expected the reduction to next week’s sale of notes and bonds, but viewed it as likely to be the last cutback […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — In times of Treasury turmoil, the biggest investor outside American soil has historically lent a helping hand. Not this time round. Japanese institutional managers — known for their legendary U.S. debt buying sprees in recent decades — are now fueling the great bond selloff just as the Federal Reserve pares its $9 trillion […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — After another wild week in global money markets, traders are betting big on the biggest regime shift in Europe in years: the end of the negative interest-rate era before 2022 is over. Fueled by a flurry of hawkish monetary signals over the past week, the interest-rate swaps market now projects the European Central […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Any hope that the Treasury market’s biggest quarterly loss had priced in a worst-case scenario for inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes is looking increasingly illusory. No sooner had the first quarter ended with a 5.6% loss for U.S. government bonds, the March employment data included a bigger-than-expected drop in the unemployment rate […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Swaps traders priced in a full two percentage points of additional Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes for 2022 as Treasury yields surged anew on Friday, led by the short end of the curve. The moves came amid developments in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and following more hawkish policy predictions by one of Wall Street’s […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Global bond markets have suffered unprecedented losses since peaking last year, as central banks including the Federal Reserve look to tighten policy to combat surging inflation. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, a benchmark for government and corporate debt total returns, has fallen 11% from a high in January 2021. That’s the biggest decline […]
Read More(Bloomberg) –Treasuries slumped, sending the two-, five- and 10-year yields to the highest levels since May 2019, as policy makers in the U.S. and Europe cranked up expectations for higher borrowing costs in the face of mounting inflationary pressures. The two-year rate — more sensitive to Fed policy changes than longer-dated ones — rose 10 […]
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