Every year, market watchers and talking heads look for a central narrative that can weave the market and economy’s movements into a single cohesive thread. That storyline often focuses on one of any number of factors – economic, political, or social – that history has proved can impact the market in a material way.
Through the latter part of 2021 and into this year, the pandemic has consistently defied attempts to look past its effects and global impact. Variants of the virus sparked multiple infection waves through 2021 that kept hospitalizations high and strained the health care system in general. As 2022 started, some of those effects seemed to have tapered enough that the narrative began to shift its focus to questions about the pace of inflation and the increases in interest rates that have come as a result. Moving into the colder months of the year in the U.S. has some health experts warning about new spikes even as China is experiencing a significant backlash over its own zero-tolerance policy that has throttled its own economic activity all over again.
For most of this year, the COVID discussion has taken a back seat to questions about inflation, interest rates, and the global issues that are constraining supply and keeping prices high. While news and global attention is focused elsewhere, the pandemic isn’t going away. Even while local and national governments have moved to endemic-phase monitoring and management, the fact remains that the risk of new variants can’t be entirely dismissed. I believe that means that research into the long-term efficacy of current vaccines will be an ongoing concern, with continued emphasis on encouraging vaccinations and booster shots. The good news is that for the nRNA vaccines available in the U.S., updates to vaccines, if needed, are easier and less time-consuming than for other vaccine types.
For pharmaceutical companies like Pflizer Inc. (PFE) that have led the global effort to development, deliver and administer vaccines around the globe, I think vaccines will remain relevant for the foreseeable future. After accounting for an even split of those proceeds with its partner, PFE predicted their COVID mRNA vaccine – the first to be approved in the U.S. – would contribute $15 billion in sales for 2021 in their first quarter earnings report. The actual numbers came in even better; total revenue from COVID vaccines alone came in at $36.8 million for fiscal year 2021, and are expected to contribute an additional $22 billion this year.
Even more appropriate to what all hope becomes and endemic-phase condition, is the fact that vaccines are just one part of a diversified pharmaceutical company’s development pipeline. PFE’s dominant position for COVID vaccines (Pfizer vaccines are estimated to account for about 70% of all vaccinated individuals, of any age, in the U.S.) gives it additional resources to invest in its robust pipeline of drugs in other important segments, including oncology. Oncology, in fact is expected to remain solid as growth in new, emerging drugs should offset declines in known names like Lyrica and Enbrel.
As one of the leading pharmaceutical companies in the industry, PFE boasts a broad portfolio with eight separate drug brands that each account for more than $1 billion in annual sales, but none that contribute more than 14% of total revenue (not counting its COVID vaccine and boosters). They also have a large development pipeline, especially as already mentioned in oncology drugs where most analysts see strong long-term growth that should offset the effect of increased competition in existing brands as patent protections expire and biosimilar and generic drugs start to take up market share.
PFE’s stock price saw a steep drop from about $62 at the end of December 2021 to its yearly low in early October at around $41.50. From that point, however, the stock has picked up a significant amount of bullish momentum, pushing to a little above $49 as of this writing.The company’s leading position in its industry and continued, along with the massive windfall so far from sales of its COVID vaccine have it on solid fundamental footing. Does that suggest that the stock’s rally could still translate to a useful opportunity for long-term oriented investors? Let’s find out.
Fundamental and Value Profile
Pfizer Inc. (Pfizer) is a research-based global biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery, development and manufacture of healthcare products. Its global portfolio includes medicines and vaccines, as well as consumer healthcare products. The Company manages its commercial operations through two business segments: Pfizer Innovative Health (IH) and Pfizer Essential Health (EH). IH focuses on developing and commercializing medicines and vaccines, as well as products for consumer healthcare. IH therapeutic areas include internal medicine, vaccines, oncology, inflammation and immunology, rare diseases and consumer healthcare. EH includes legacy brands, branded generics, generic sterile injectable products, biosimilars and infusion systems. EH also includes a research and development (R&D) organization, as well as its contract manufacturing business. Its brands include Prevnar 13, Xeljanz, Eliquis, Lipitor, Celebrex, Pristiq and Viagra. PFE has a current market cap of $277 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings increased by 33%, while revenues declined by about -6%. In the last quarter, earnings decreased by -12.75% while sales were -18.4% lower. The company’s margin profile is healthy, and strengthening; over the last twelve months, Net Income as a percentage of Revenues was nearly 30%, and increased to a little more than 38% in the last quarter.
Free Cash Flow: PFE’s free cash flow is very strong, at more than $23.3 billion over the last twelve months. That does mark a decline from about $29.8 billion a year ago, and $28.4 billion in the last quarter. The current number translates to a Free Cash Flow Yield of 8.41%.
Debt to Equity: PFE’s debt to equity is .35, which is a conservative number. The company’s balance sheet indicates that operating profits are more than adequate to service their debt, with healthy liquidity to provide additional flexibility. Cash and liquid assets were about $36.1 billion in the last quarter, while long-term debt was $32.6 billion – down from $49.7 billion at the beginning of 2021.
Dividend: PFE’s annual divided is $1.60 per share, and which translates to a yield of about 3.23% at the stock’s current price. It is also noteworthy that the dividend increased at the beginning of 2020 from $1.52 per share, and from $1.56 in mid-2021, and which I think provides a useful indication of management’s confidence in their approach.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target at around $56 per share. That means that PFE is modestly undervalued right now, by about 13.5%.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The chart above covers the last year of price activity. The red diagonal line traces the stock’s downward trend from its December 2021 high at around $62 to its 52-week low at around $41.50 per share in October. It also provides the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. After dropping back to that October low, the stock has rallied strongly, pushing above the 38.2% retracement line at around $49 to mark current support at that point, with immediate resistance at around $51.50. A drop below $49 should find next support at around $46, while the latest push above that level should give the stock room to rally to about $51.50.
Near-term Keys: PFE’s balance sheet has nearly “fortress”-level strength, with robust free cash flow to provide additional stability and growth potential along with improving profitability. The current decline in free cash flow and cash is a concern, as they do reflect what I attribute as rising input costs that continue to impact every sector of the economy; however PFE has a lot of flexibility to work with and better ability than most companies to ride through what could simply be a cyclical concern. PFE’s value proposition is interesting, if not quite compelling, but is enough to make the stock something to consider using right now for a long-term investing opportunity. If you prefer to focus on short-term trading strategies, you could use the current push above $49 as a signal to consider buying the stock or working with call options, using a bullish near-term target price at around $51.50 to take profits. You could also use a drop below $49 as an opportunity to think about shorting the stock or buying put options, using $46 as a practical bearish target.