Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) is one of the most recognizable and established companies in the Technology sector. With a market cap of about $167 billion, they are also one of the largest, if not THE largest player in the Networking & Communications segment. They are, without question, the standard that all other networking businesses are measured and compete against. No matter whether you’re talking about wired or wireless networking, CSCO is one of the companies that not only developed the standards and infrastructure the entire Internet is built on today, but that continues to lead the way into the future, including cloud-based computing and the next generation of technology in the so-called “Internet of Things” (IoT).
It’s ironic, perhaps that despite CSCO’s unquestioned dominance in its industry, the stock has mostly languished for nearly two decades. After riding the “dot-com boom” of the late 1990’s to a peak at around $80 per share, the stock cratered when that boom went bust, dropping to as low as about $8 in late 2002. From that point it never rose higher than into the low $30 range – at least not until the latter part of 2017, when the stock finally broke that top-end resistance. That pushed the stock to a high in May a little above $46 per share as Tech stocks generally prospered. 2019 started off pretty well for investors in the stock, as well; the stock increased about 30% from its late December 2018 low around $40 per share, and hit a new multi-year high a little above $58 in mid-July.
From that point, trade concerns in the latter part of 2019, followed by the global COVID-19 outbreak that propelled the entire market into the first legitimate bear market in more than a decade pushed the stock all the way to a multiyear low at around $32 in mid-March. From that point, the stock picked up some useful bullish momentum, forming a nice short-term upward trend that saw the stock peak at around $48 in early June, then retrace and visit that peak again in early August. From that point, the stock actually dropped several dollars per share on an overnight basis on the basis of its last earnings report, which clearly disappointed the market and pushed the stock to a new low in late September a little below $38. The stock’s underwhelming performance is a little puzzling considering the way that a lot of the stocks that play in CSCO’s sandbox – offering many of the solutions that have kept corporate America working through the pandemic – have led the market over the past seven months – but it might also spell an interesting opportunity for a conservative investor trying to mine the market for good value.
For massive portions of corporate America, COVID-19 has meant sending white-collars workers home and setting up various telecommuting solutions to keep business going. That’s given an intriguing rise to some of CSCO’s competitors who have become media darlings; but I also think this is a trend that will actually translate to a long-term, fundamental shift in the way business is done all over the world, even after the pandemic does eventually ease and economic activity resumes pre-COVID levels. While CSCO may not be getting a lot of that media-generated buzz, the truth is that this company has been providing solutions and services for exactly this kind of condition for more than two decades, from Wide Area Networking to teleconferencing and more. CSCO is also a big player in the 5G and IoT world, which represents the next stage in remote connectivity in ways that we are really only beginning to appreciate. Does that mean that the stock’s recent drop creates a good value-base opportunity?
Fundamental and Value Profile
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) designs and sells a range of products, provides services and delivers integrated solutions to develop and connect networks around the world. The Company operates through three geographic segments: Americas; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific, Japan and China (APJC). The Company groups its products and technologies into various categories, such as Switching; Next-Generation Network (NGN) Routing; Collaboration; Data Center; Wireless; Service Provider Video; Security, and Other Products. In addition to its product offerings, the Company provides a range of service offerings, including technical support services and advanced services. The Company delivers its technology and services to its customers as solutions for their priorities, including cloud, video, mobility, security, collaboration and analytics. The Company serves customers, including businesses of all sizes, public institutions, governments and service providers. CSCO has a market cap of $167.3 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings declined by -5.26%, while sales declined roughly -9.5%. In the most recent quarter, earnings were exactly 0.0% while sales grew 1.43%. CSCO has a very healthy operating profile, with Net Income running at 22.75% of Revenues over the last twelve months. That number narrowed a bit in the last quarter to 21.69%; the drop, while modest does raise a question about whether the company is becoming less efficient. Under current market conditions, though I don’t think this is a major issue. The total operating margins remain an overall good sign that the company’s profitability is on very strong footing.
Free Cash Flow: CSCO’s free cash flow over the last twelve months is nearly $15 billion. This is a number that the company has historically managed to maintain at very healthy levels and translates to a Free Cash Flow Yield of 9.26%.
Debt to Equity: CSCO has a conservative, manageable debt-to-equity ratio of .31. CSCO’s balance sheet shows more than $29.4 billion in cash and liquid assets (versus $28.5 billion in the quarter prior) versus about $11.5 billion in long-term debt. Servicing their debt is not a concern, and liquidity to pursue additional expansion or return value to shareholders via stock buyback or increased dividends is excellent.
Dividend: CSCO currently pays an annual dividend of $1.44 per share, which translates to an annual yield of about 3.61% at the stock’s current price.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target around $38.50 per share. That means that CSCO is a bit overvalued by about -3%. It also puts the stock’s bargain price at around $31.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The chart above covers the last year of price activity. The diagonal red line traces the stock’s COVID-19 slump from a 52-week high a little above $50 to its low point in March at around $32 of this year. It also provides the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. The stock built a nice short-term upward trend from that bottom, and began to consolidate in June, with resistance right around $48 providing the peak in August that started the stock’s latest downward trend. The stock finally found a bottom at around $38 and has pushed above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line; that should now act as support at around $39, while immediate resistance is a little below $41. A drop below $39 should see the stock test its September, $38 low, with additional room to revisit its 52-week low point at around $32 if bearish momentum accelerates. A push to $41 could give the stock room to run to a little above $43, with the next resistance level from that point sitting between $45 and $46.
Near-term Keys: If the stock breaks above $41, you could have a good short-term opportunity to buy the stock or work with call options, with an initial profit target sitting at around $43.50, and more room to around $45 or $46 if bullish momentum can keep building. A drop below $39 would mark a good signal to think about shorting the stock or to buy put options, using an initial target price at $36, with the stock’s 52-week low around $32 attainable if bearish momentum accelerates. Based on my traditional metrics, I can’t call CSCO a solid value right now; but I do think there are a number of other elements – continued remote workforce services and solutions, 5G implementation over the next year or so, and corporate spending on IT infrastructure that has been deferred or delayed because of COVID, to name just a few – that aren’t being factored into my value analysis because of their forward-looking nature. If you’re looking for a way to work with a 600-lb industry gorilla with a stable, attractive dividend, those could be good enough elements to make this an exception to the normal value-based argument.