The Charts Keeping Wall Street Up At Night

Since Christmas Eve, stocks have been on a quiet tear with the S&P 500 climbing around 12% since then. But while stocks are now rebounding after being clobbered for the last several months, don’t be fooled.

“Don’t think stocks are back to their old ways of just chugging along and making easy money,” Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “The recent rally is likely due to the end of tax loss selling as we crossed over into the new year.”

There are also several volatility markers that seem to be signaling a warning about what’s to come.

The first is a divergence between the VVIX Index and the VIX which indicates that investors aren’t betting on a new breakout with outsized price moves, which could be a sign of complacency.

Source: Bloomberg.

Credit Suisse Group AG strategist Mandy Xu warns that markets are “vulnerable to bursts” of volatility in 2019. And that’s certainly been clear recently as U.S. stocks have been bouncing around quite a bit.

Right now, the 50-day moving average of daily price swings in the S&P 500 is close to its highest levels since December 2008.

Source: Bloomberg.

“The increasing use and gain in popularity of weekly S&P 500 options—and SPY and e-minis—are potentially one important contributor to the intraday volatility of the S&P 500,” Kambiz Kazemi, a partner and portfolio manager at La Financiere Constance in Toronto, said.

According to Kazemi, as an index approaches levels where the option strike price shows high open interest, hedging has a tendency to expand quickly which could lead to abrupt accelerations in the underlying gauge.

A chorus of voices heading into the new year warned that investors should prepare for a difficult 2019 and recommended hedging appropriately. But recently, hedges are the cheapest they have been since 2016, and muted premiums for traditional protective hedges over upside calls is another signal worth keeping an eye on. 

Implied volatility for put options on the S&P 500 Index sunk late last year relative to call contracts, which sent the CBOE SKEW Index—which measures expectations of a tail event—to its lowest level in more than two years.

Strategist can disagree on what the falling SKEW means and say that it indicates either a rush of bullish bets in anticipation of a big rally, or a complacent shunning of market defenses.

Demand for hedges jumped last February as investors looked for safety in bearish contracts. However, that wasn’t the case in the fourth quarter as stocks tumbled and the SKEW gauge fell.

Source: Bloomberg.

“This dynamic has very much been to the frustration of several clients, who were unable to monetize hedges to the degree of profitability that they had presumed they would,” Andrew Scott of Society Generale SA said.

The one bright side to this is that downside hedges are rarely as cheap as they are now.

Finally, bonds too are raising eyebrows, as the world’s largest bond market has become a bit too calm.

A volatility gauge for the 10-year U.S. Treasury futures “now screens a touch low,” warns UBS Group AG strategist Stuart Kaiser. And a breakout in interest-rate volatility is a leading indicator for shifts that are unfriendly to risk assets.

Source: Bloomberg.
Trending Ideas

Featured Stocks On The Move

Daily Rundown

Top 3 Stocks in Leading Sectors
  • 3 Electric Power Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE) Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. is a holding company that provides electric utility services and financial services in Hawaii. Through its subsidiaries, it supplies... Read More

  • 3 Bank Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content Comerica Incorporated (CMA) Comerica Incorporated is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, offering a range of banking products and services, including commercial and retail banking, wealth... Read More

  • 3 Machinery Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content Alta Equipment Group Inc. (ALTG) Alta Equipment Group Inc. is an integrated equipment dealership platform in the United States, operating through three segments: Material Handling, Construction Equipment, and... Read More

  • 3 Silver Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content Gatos Silver, Inc. (GATO) Gatos Silver, Inc. is a precious metals mining company primarily focused on silver and zinc production. Its flagship Cerro Los Gatos mine in Mexico... Read More

  • 3 Metal Production Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Century Aluminum Company is a primary aluminum producer, with operations that include the production of high-purity, low-carbon aluminum used in automotive, aerospace, and industrial... Read More

  • 3 Medical Drug Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (TEVA) Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited is a global pharmaceutical company specializing in generic and specialty medicines. The company provides a wide range of treatments... Read More

  • 3 Paper Product Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content AptarGroup Inc. (ATR) AptarGroup Inc. is a global leader in providing innovative dispensing and packaging solutions, serving diverse industries like beauty, personal care, and pharmaceuticals. They focus on... Read More

  • 3 Restaurant Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) Brinker International, Inc. operates well-known restaurant brands such as Chili’s Grill & Bar and Maggiano’s Little Italy. The company is a leader in the... Read More

  • 3 Investment Brokerage Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a financial services company known for its commission-free trading platform, which allows users to trade stocks, options, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs.... Read More

  • 3 Shipping Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. is a global container shipping company that provides cargo transportation services worldwide. The company operates a modern... Read More

  • 3 Mining Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA) Perpetua Resources Corp. is a mining company focused on the exploration and redevelopment of the Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho, which is one of... Read More

  • 3 Airline Stocks To Buy Now

    Featured Content General Electric Company (GE) General Electric Company is a global industrial conglomerate with operations spanning sectors such as aviation, healthcare, power, and renewable energy. GE is known for... Read More