One of the industries that hasn’t been participating in bullish rally enjoyed by the broader Consumer Discretionary sector is apparel manufacturers. While the sector has increased about 24% year to date and more than 4% in the last month, as measured by the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), even the leading apparel companies, like Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) and PVH Corp (PVH) have struggled. The poor price performance of these stocks has been driven for the past year by persistent trade tensions, where tariffs have begun to weigh on profit results for a number of companies in the sector, as well as consumer trends that continue to shift away from retail stores.
According to analysts, a lackluster holiday season in 2018, along with an over-optimistic spring ordering season in the retail space has resulted in oversupply issues that limits how much of a benefit apparel manufacturers will be able to see from this year’s back to school shopping period. Add to that the fact that online retailers like Amazon (AMZN) keep putting heavy pressure on retail companies and it isn’t too surprising to see many of these stocks trading well below historical highs.
PVH is a company that might not catch your attention by its corporate name; but it’s a good bet that you, your teenager, or both of you have purchased their products. The company designs and markets dress shirts, neckwear, sportswear, jeanswear, intimate apparel, swim products and handbags, footwear and a variety of related products under well-known brands like Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, and Michael Kors, to name just a few. As recently as last summer, the stock was trading at a peak of nearly $170 before the market’s bear market test late in the year drive the stock down more than 50% to a trend low around $86. After rallying back nearly 50% into May, the stock has dropped back again to that 52-week low, driven primarily by the pressures I just outlined.
Those concerns could keep weighing on the stock, and keep its price in troubled territory for the near term; however the stock also looks like it could be building a consolidation pattern around $86, which could help build a technical base to eventually reverse its downward trend and start to go back up again. The stock has a mostly solid fundamental profile, and a value proposition that appears to be more and more compelling, which means that if you’re a patient value investor, and aren’t afraid of a little more near-term volatility, this is a stock that could offer an interesting opportunity.
Fundamental and Value Profile
PVH Corp. is an apparel company. The Company operates through three segments: Calvin Klein, which consists of the Calvin Klein North America and Calvin Klein International segments; Tommy Hilfiger, which consists of the Tommy Hilfiger North America and Tommy Hilfiger International segments, and Heritage Brands, which consists of the Heritage Brands Wholesale and Heritage Brands Retail segments. The Company’s brand portfolio consists of various brand names, including Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Van Heusen, IZOD, ARROW, Warner’s, Olga and Eagle, which are owned, and Speedo, Geoffrey Beene, Kenneth Cole New York, Kenneth Cole Reaction, Sean John, MICHAEL Michael Kors, Michael Kors Collection and Chaps, which are licensed, as well as various other licensed and private label brands. The Company designs and markets dress shirts, neckwear, sportswear, jeanswear, intimate apparel, swim products and handbags, footwear and other related products. PVH has a current market cap of $6.7 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings increased a little over 4%, while sales were mostly flat, but positive by 1.8%. In the last quarter, earnings improved almost 34%, while revenues declined -5.14%. The company’s margin profile shows signs of deterioration; over the last twelve months, Net Income was 6.69% of Revenues but narrowed to 3.28% in the last quarter.
Free Cash Flow: PVH’s Free Cash Flow is healthy, at $525.5 million. This is a number that has improved from a little more than $372 million in the final quarter of 2018, and that translates to Free Cash Flow Yield of 7.84%.
Debt to Equity: PVH has a debt/equity ratio of .74, which is a pretty conservative number. Their balance sheet shows $494.3 million in cash and liquid assets against $4.2 billion of long-term debt. Both of these numbers have increased – cash from a little more than $400 million at the end of 2018, and debt more alarmingly from $2.9 billion since the end of the first quarter of 2019. Their narrow, declining margin profile, balanced against their healthy cash flow means that while they should have no problem servicing their debt right now, they could encounter issues down the road if that pattern doesn’t improve.
Dividend: PVH pays an annual dividend of $.15 per share, which translates to a minimal dividend yield of just .17%. The stock’s dividend is not a defining reason to own the stock, but it is noteworthy that the stock pays a dividend, in an industry where most companies do not.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but one of the simplest methods that I like uses the stock’s Book Value, which for PVH is $76.77 per share. At the stock’s current price, that translates to a Price/Book Ratio of 1.16. Their historical average is 1.66, which means the stock is undervalue by about 43%, and provides a good reference for the stock’s long-term potential upside, which is at about $127 per share.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: This chart displays the last two years of stock performance for PVH. Since dropping from its all-time high at nearly $170 in June of last year, the stock has twice tested its multi-year low, and even set a new low at the beginning of June around $82.50. The stock is currently hovering in a sideways range with support and resistance between about $88 and $95, which could mark the consolidation pattern I mentioned earlier. A break above $95 would mark a likely rally to somewhere between $102 and $109, while a drop below $88 would almost certainly mark a retest of the stock’s low around $82.50.
Near-term Keys: If the stock can show a rally off of support, and break above $95, there could be an interesting opportunity to buy the stock or work with call options with an eye on $102 as a closing target price. If, however, the stock drops below $88, consider shorting the stock or working with put options, with a plan to exit the trade at around $82.50. The value proposition for PVH is very interesting, and so if you don’t mind dealing with the broad market’s current uncertainty, and even pessimism about the industry, there is an interesting opportunity to be had. It might also be smart to wait for an improvement in Net Income on a quarterly basis, along with a decrease in long-term debt before taking a long-term position in this stock.