Is FL’s -36% drop since April an opportunity, or a big risk?

When technical traders see a stock’s price pattern diverging from its industry or sector, the question becomes whether that divergence represents an opportunity, or a risk. The commonly held principle that “a rising tide lifts all ships” usually means that if a broad segment of the market, such as the Consumer Discretionary sector, is performing well, most stocks in that sector should also be seeing strongly bullish movements. Consumer Discretionary is one of the top-performing sectors year to date, only recently dropping off of a high, but still up more than 24% year to date as measured by the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector SPDR (XLY).

If you look at many of the well-known names in the sector, including big-box retailers like Walmart (WMT), Target Stores (TGT), and even a number of specialty retailers like Best Buy (BBY) or Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), you might conclude the sector is in good shape. I suppose that’s why divergent stocks like Foot Locker (FL) pique my interest. The stock is down a little over -36% since April, with the most dramatic portion of that drop coming from an overnight drop of more than $10 per share in late May. That plunge coincides with the company’s most recent earnings report, which came in lower than the market expected. Management also revised their forward estimates lower, and the market clearly didn’t respond well. 

That reaction belies the broader sector trend, but also tends to ignore some other elements that seem to indicate the company’s fundamental strength is actually improving. It is also interesting that the stock has held to a very narrow trading range since that overnight drop, which could mean a consolidation base is developing that could give value-oriented investors a starting point to start thinking seriously about taking a new position in the stock.

Fundamental and Value Profile

Foot Locker, Inc. is a retailer of shoes and apparel. The Company operates through two segments: Athletic Stores and Direct-to-Customers. The Company is an athletic footwear and apparel retailer, which include businesses, such as include Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker, Champs Sports, Footaction, Runners Point, Sidestep and SIX:02. The Direct-to-Customers segment is multi-branded and sells directly to customers through Internet and mobile sites and catalogs. The Direct-to-Customers segment operates the Websites for eastbay.com, final-score.com, eastbayteamsales.com and sp24.com. Additionally, this segment includes the Websites, both desktop and mobile, aligned with the brand names of its store banners (footlocker.com, ladyfootlocker.com, six02.com kidsfootlocker.com, champssports.com, footaction.com, footlocker.ca, footlocker.eu, runnerspoint.com and sidestep-shoes.com). FL has a current market cap of about $4.5 billion.

Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings increased 5.5%, while revenues improved a little over 2.6%. In the last quarter, as earnings declined almost -2%, while sales dropped -8.5%. The company’s margin profile differs from that negative pattern and is an indication of increasing strength, as Net Income as a percentage of Revenues over the last twelve months was 6.85%, and strengthened in the last quarter to 8.27%.

Free Cash Flow: FL’s free cash flow is healthy, at $515 million over the last twelve months and that translates to a Free Cash Flow Yield of 10.9%.

Debt to Equity: FL’s debt/equity ratio is 1.12, and increased dramatically from .05 in the last quarter. The balance sheet shows that long-term debt increased from only about $125 million in the first quarter of this year to a little over $2.9 billion in the last quarter. Cash and liquid assets are good, at $1.1 billion. Their improving margin profile, healthy free cash flow and solid cash position means that even with the big jump in debt, operating profits are more than adequate to service the debt they have, while they also have good liquidity to provide additional flexibility.

Dividend: FL’s annual divided is $1.52 per share, which translates to a yield of about 3.7% at the stock’s current price. The dividend has also increased by about $.38 per share since the beginning of the year.

Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but one of the simplest methods that I like uses the stock’s Book Value. FL has a Book Value of $23.17. That translates to a Price/Book value of 1.77, against a historical average Price/Book ratio of 2.96. That means that FL is undervalued by almost 67%. That puts the stock’s long-term “fair value” target price at about $68 per share, and back around its highest point in March of this year.

Technical Profile

Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.

Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The chart above displays FL’s price performance over the last yeas. The diagonal red line traces the stock’s decline from March of this year to its low in June, and also serves as the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines on the right side of the chart. The stock has formed a pretty solid consolidation pattern since June, with support right around the stock’s current price at $41 and resistance at about $43.50. A break above $43.50, to $44 could mark an early sign the stock’s downward trend is reversing, with upside to somewhere between $48 and the 38.2% retracement line at $50. If support doesn’t hold at $41, the stock will probably drop quickly to somewhere between $37 and $35 per share based on lows not seen since late 2017.

Near-term Keys: FL has a lot of interesting elements working in its favor as a potential value play; however given the stock’s accelerated drop in May, and the size of its decline since March, the stock could see more downside if their next earnings announcement next month doesn’t show some improvement in the earnings pattern, along with some reduction in debt. That means that if you want to buy the stock as a long-term value play, you may need to be willing to deal with some near-term volatility. If you prefer to work with shorter-term trades, you can look for a break to $44 as a bullish signal to buy the stock or work with call options with an eye on $48 to $50 as an exit point. A drop below $41 could be a signal to consider shorting the stock or working with put options; in that case look for an exit price at around 437 per share.


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