Stocks opened higher for the second day in a row, with the Dow rising 150, or 0.6%, at the open. The S&P gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq added 0.3%.
The minutes from the Fed’s last meeting were released yesterday and spelled out that officials viewed their cut as insurance against headwinds from the trade war and low inflation. Investors are now waiting with bated breath for Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s address in Jackson Hole on Friday, with Fed watchers hoping Powell will suggest that the central bank is ready to reduce interest rates further and the market prices in an ultra-dovish trajectory for rates. But how far Powell can go may still be limited by divisions within the Fed despite the market’s push for more rate cuts. Yesterday, we reported that Boston President Eric Rosengren dissented from last month’s decision, and already this morning, we have Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George saying that July’s rate cut was unnecessary and that more cuts might not yet be needed. “My sense was we’ve added accommodation, and it wasn’t required in my view,” George said. “With this very low unemployment rate, with wages rising, with the inflation rate staying close to the Fed’s target, I think we’re in a good place relative to the mandates that we’re asked to achieve. … As you look at global growth weakening and as you look at the amount of uncertainty associated with some of these trade issues, I think both of those are weighing on the outlook. Whether they spill over in a way that we see in the real economy is what I’m watching for.”
After the minutes from the Fed’s July meeting were released, the curve between the 2-year note and the 10-year note flattened and then briefly inverted Wednesday afternoon. Then after the Kansas City Fed President’s remarks this morning, the yield curve inverted once again as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded under that of the 2-year note, market the third time the recession indicator has been triggered since last Wednesday. The Dow quickly turned negative on the ominous sign, giving up earlier gains as recession fears once again rose. “The big question: Is the U.S. in a recession or about to enter one?” well-known market bear David Tice said. “We’re either there or within two months away from that.”
Shares of Tesla were up in premarket trading this morning on a report that Volkswagen’s CEO was interested in buying a stake in the company. Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess’ supposed interest in acquiring a stake in Tesla was initially reported by the German publication Manager Magazin, with the report citing company sources who said that Diess thinks Volkswagen could stand to benefit from Tesla’s expertise in batteries and software. But Tesla shares quickly pared some of the gains once a Volkswagen spokesperson denied the report. “It’s completely unfounded,” said Volkswagen spokesman Pietro Zollino. “It’s pure speculation.” After initially rising around 2%, Tesla stock is currently down -0.29%.
Another troubled stock jumped today after Barron’s reported that Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame is long GameStop. The stock, which is down nearly -72% so far this year, jumped as much as 18% on the news. Burry told Barron’s Tae Kim that GameStop still has upside potential as Sony’s and Microsoft’s upcoming consoles will likely have physical optic drives, which will “extend GameStop’s life significantly,” he said. Burry, whose Scion Asset Management firm has a 3% stake in the retailer, also noted that the rise of game streaming competitors is “creating a perfect storm where things look terrible,” but “it looks worse than it really is.” Burry also sent a letter to the video game retailer urging them to buy back roughly $240 million in stock with cash on hand. “Technical factors driving the stock to lows has created an opportunity for substantial buybacks at below private market prices,” Burry said. GameStop is up 10% at the time of writing.
Nordstrom shares jumped pre-market this morning after its second-quarter profit beat estimates, offering some home that the department store model can survive. However, the company said net sales will probable drop -2% this year and it also narrowed its guidance range for the full year. Coming up in earnings today, Dick’s Sporting Goods, The Gap, and Ross Stores are all reporting after the bell. Salesforce also reports after the close and may show resilience to the trade war, as its exposure to China is low. HP’s results may demonstrate a hit from tariffs and a mixed print supplies segment. Intuit and VMware are also due to report.
Stocks We’re Watching
Telaria Inc (NYSE: TLRA): Telaria operates a video management platform to help premium video publishers optimize their digital ad inventory through software. The business serves big name video publishers like Discovery Channel, Sling TV, Fox News, Disney, and Hulu. But even more exciting than that list of customers is Telaria’s accelerating revenue. Its Q2 revenue jumped 47% year-over-year, that’s up from 42% revenue growth in Q1, and 31% revenue growth in Q4 of 2018. Second quarter CTV (connected-TV, or TV that’s streamed over the internet) revenue also surged 133% year-over-year, accounting for 39% of total revenue. “The strategic decision to focus our business on CTV is being proven out by increasingly compelling market dynamics regarding CTV scale and penetration, the growth of ads for CTV content, and a rapidly emerging programmatic opportunity in the space,” said CEO Mark Zagorski, referring to the company’s decision to rebrand and focus on dominating its niche of helping premium video publishers monetize their CTV ad inventories.
Trivago (NASDAQ: TRVG): Shares of this travel site have jumped nearly 11% over the last month after the stock began rallying late last month after Trivago delivered its second quarter earnings report, with sales and earnings for the quarter beating expectations. Q2 revenue came in at 223.4 million euros, beating analysts’ expectation by 5.1 million euros. Trivago also posted net income of 5.9 million euros, a massive improvement over the -20.7 million euros it reported in Q2 2018, and earnings for the period were 0.02 euros per share, beating the average per share estimate of 0.01 euros. The Q2 results demonstrate that the company’s strategy of slimming down and aiming to generate more profitable sales is working.