Another week, another wave of trade-centered speculation. Earlier this week, the market decided to rally after President Trump said that a trade deal could happen “sooner than you think.” Yesterday, investor’s mood seemed to sour a bit as a report suggested that the U.S. is unlikely to extend a waiver allowing American companies to do business with Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies – a waiver that has been in place since early in the summer and was previously extended in August to November. Add to that the increasing drama out of Washington around Trump impeachment talks, and there is enough uncertainty to keep market volatility churning.
Current conditions suggest that some of the sectors that I’ve been focused on this year, and that have performed pretty well for the most part, are likely to continue acting as a good place to keep your money working for you. That includes the Consumer Staples sector, with a number of Food Products stocks among those have been performing well lately.
One of the most recognizable names in the industry is Kellogg Co. (K). Whether or not you have kids, I’m willing to bet that cereal is in your pantry right now, because the fact is that breakfast cereal is an ingrained part of American life. The stock had been in a strong downward trend until June of this year, declining from a high around $75 in late September 2018 to a low a little above $51. From that point, however, the stock has rebounded nicely, rising about 25% over the last three and a half months and developing an interesting intermediate-term upward trend. The company also has an improving fundamental profile, and an interesting value proposition; together, all of these elements could make K a useful part of a productive portfolio.
Fundamental and Value Profile
Kellogg Company is a manufacturer and marketer of ready-to-eat cereal and convenience foods. The Company’s principal products are ready-to-eat cereals and convenience foods, such as cookies, crackers, savory snacks, toaster pastries, cereal bars, fruit-flavored snacks, frozen waffles and veggie foods. Its segments include U.S. Morning Foods, which includes cereal, toaster pastries, health and wellness bars, and beverages; U.S. Snacks, which includes cookies, crackers, cereal bars, savory snacks and fruit-flavored snacks; U.S. Specialty, which represents food away from home channels, including food service, convenience, vending, Girl Scouts and food manufacturing; North America Other, which includes the U.S. Frozen, Kashi and Canada operating segments; Europe, which consists of European countries; Latin America, which consists of Central and South America and includes Mexico, and Asia Pacific, which consists of Sub-Saharan Africa, Australia and other Asian and Pacific markets. K’s current market cap is $21.9 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings declined about -13.6%, while revenues were modestly higher, at 3%. In the last quarter, earnings were still lower, but only by about -2%, while sales dropped about -1.73%. The company operates with a margin profile that is strengthening, which is a positive sign. Over the last twelve months, Net Income during was 6.27% of Revenues, and increased in the last quarter, to 8.26% of Revenues. This also marks a reversal of a pattern earlier this year that saw Net Income dip into negative territory.
Free Cash Flow: K’s free cash flow is about $1 billion and translates to a Free Cash Flow Yield of 4.61%.
Dividend Yield: K’s dividend is $2.28 per share, which translates to an annual yield of about 3.56% at the stock’s current price.
Debt to Equity: K has a debt/equity ratio of 2.67. This is a high number, and makes them one of the most heavily leveraged stocks in the Food Products industry. Their balance sheet indicates that in the last quarter, cash and liquid assets were $340 million against $8.5 billion in long-term debt. While liquidity could be an issue, their balance sheet indicates that operating profits are sufficient to service their debt.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but one of the simplest methods that I like uses the stock’s Book Value, which for K is $9.43 per share. That translates to a Price/Book ratio of 6.8, which is high compared to the Price/Book levels I usually look for. However, the stock’s historical Price/Book ratio is 9.39, which puts a long-term target price around $88.50 per share and near to its 2016 highs. The stock is also currently trading at a discount of about 38% from that price. In addition, the stock’s Price/Cash Flow is about 26% below its historical average, offering a more conservative but still attractive long-term target price at around $81 per share.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: This chart traces the stock’s movement over the last two years. The diagonal red line traces the stock’s downward trend from September of last year to its low in June; it also acts as the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. The stock’s rally from the bottom of the trend has pushed the stock about 25% above its trend low, and above the 38.2% and 50% retracement lines. It is about $2 below its next closest resistance, which is sitting at around $66 as shown by the 61.8% retracement line. A push above that resistance could see the stock rally to somewhere between $69 and $70 in the short term. The stock’s current support is around $63 based on the 50% retracement line, and if the stock drops below that level, it could drop down to around the $60 level quickly, with additional room below the 38.2% line to about $58.50 if the $60 support level doesn’t hold.
Near-term Keys: If you’re looking for a short-term, bullish trade, look for a break above resistance $66 as a good signal to buy the stock or to work with call options. If the stock shows weakness, and pushes below its major support at $63, consider shorting the stock or working with put options, with an eye on the $59 to $60 level. From a long-term view, K is a company that offers a very interesting value proposition and appears to be reversing its pattern from earlier in the year of declining fundamental strength. That improvement is at least part of the reason for the stock’s performance since June, but it is also a good sign that the current upward trend could extend into a longer, even more useful bullish trend under the right conditions.