A Continuation Of The UAW Strike Could Bring GM “To Its Knees”

Plus, earnings season has officially begun, there could be a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations today, and Google just announced its latest smartphone.

Stocks traded higher to start Tuesday with the Dow gaining 306 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 adding 1.1%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.2%.

Earnings season kicked off this morning with big banks JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Wells Fargo all reporting this morning. JPMorgan shares are up nearly 4% at the time of writing after the bank reported profit and record revenue that beat expectations boosted by home and auto loans, and credit cards, while Goldman shares are down -1.6% after it reported slumping profit and revenue on results from its investing and lending, and investment banking businesses. Johnson & Johnson also reported this morning and showed its third quarter numbers lifted by higher sales of cancer and other prescription drugs. United Airlines will report after the bell today, and Netflix, IBM, and Bank of America are all scheduled to report tomorrow.

The IMF offered up another dose of trade reality this morning. It said its latest World Economic Outlook projections show that the U.S. – China trade war has cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis, and warned that the outlook could darken beyond that if trade tensions remain unresolved. The IMF revised its projection for global growth down to just 3%. “The weakness in growth is driven by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity and global trade, with higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging investment and demand for capital goods,” said IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath. “At 3% growth, there is no room for policy mistakes and an urgent need for policy makers to support growth.”

U.K. and European Union negotiators appear to be closing in on a draft Brexit deal, according to a report from Bloomberg, and there’s hope that there could be a breakthrough before the end of today. Still, a draft deal will hinge on U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ability to get support from parliament and backing from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party. If negotiators are able to come to agreement on a deal, it will be presented at the EU leaders’ summit on Thursday and U.K. MPs would likely be asked to vote on the deal on Saturday. The pound surged to $1.2788, its highest level in almost four months. 

GM CEO Mary Barra joined negotiations with the United Auto Workers in an effort to end the union’s 30-day strike. While a deal has not been locked in yet, one person briefed on the talks said they were “in the home stretch.” The UAW has asked for a meeting with local union leaders in Detroit on Thursday, where it could discuss a tentative agreement if one is reached or give an update on negotiations. According to Bank of America, the UAW strike has cost the auto maker roughly $2 billion. “A prolonged strike could burn significant cash and bring GM to its knees, but investors likely will also react negatively if management is perceived to have caved into labor’s demands and GM’s long-term competitiveness is threatened,” said Bank of America analyst John Murphy in a note. 

Google announced its newest smartphone at an event this morning. The Pixel 4 and Pixel 4 XL features a 5.7-inch or 6.3-inch display, improvements to its night sight camera, and car crash detection that enables your phone to call 911 automatically if you’ve been in an auto accident, and will be available for $799 or $899 for the XL model. Google also announced an updated home speaker and Wi-Fi router under its Nest smart-home brand, a new Pixelbook Go laptop, and new Pixel Buds headphones featuring “adaptive sound” technology. Google shares are up nearly 2% this morning following the announcement event.

Stocks We’re Watching

Aecom Technology Corp (NYSE: ACM): Aecom shares are up nearly 8% so far this week after the engineering and construction services giant announced its plan to sell its management services business for $2.4 billion to a consortium of private equity firms including Lindsay Goldberg and American Securities. The management services unity generated $3.69 billion in revenue in 2018 and accounted for 18% of its sales, according to Reuters. The unit works with the federal government in providing logistics and technical support. Aecom said it will use the proceeds from this sale to buy back stock and pay down debt. “With this transaction and expected record fourth-quarter free cash flow, our balance sheet will be strengthened and we will have greater flexibility to deploy capital in the future,” said Aecom CFO Troy Rudd.  

Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE: HGV): Shares of Hilton Grand Vacations were up as much as 11% yesterday after Bloomberg reported Apollo Global Management has made a first-round offer for the timeshare resort operator of $40 per share – 15% higher than the current price. Hilton Grand Vacations owns 55 resorts and more than 315,000 members. Apollo bought timeshare operator Diamond Resorts International for $2.2 billion back in 2016.  

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