If history is any guide, the S&P 500 could soon rocket higher.
The S&P 500 has barely moved this week with the index is up just 0.13%.
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But according to a group of technical research strategists at Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), the S&P 500 could soon see a surge to 3,850—nearly 25% higher than the current level—if stocks stage a similar rally to what has been seen historically in similar circumstances.
According to the strategists, if the market’s move from 2018 to earlier this month proves to be a cyclical consolidation or bear market like those seen in 2011 to 2012 and 2015 to 2016, then the market should see an extended breakout higher.
“History suggests that breakouts from these ranges should be powerful,” wrote strategists Stephen Suttmeier and Jordan Young in a note, adding that the 3,063 level in the S&P 500 was the “bears’ last stand.”
“Last week’s push above SPX 3.063 is an uncomfortable breakout for many who viewed the SPX pattern as bearish,” the strategists wrote. The same was true for breakouts in early 2013 and late 2016, both times confirming the end of two-year consolidation periods for the index.
In both of those cases, the market was plagued by global growth scares and negative macro news, and the same can be said of the period between the beginning of 2018 through 2019 as global growth has slowed, and the U.S.-China trade war has raged on, alongside other geopolitical concerns.
“The chart pattern suggests history rhymes in late 2019,” Suttmeier and Young wrote, while also noting that the rally is broadening with a breakout in the NYSE, which has been lagging the S&P 500.
According to the strategists, such a breakout is similar to what was seen in 2013 and 2016 and coincides with breakouts in the Russell 1000 Value and S&P industrial and financial sectors.
They also added that the gain in the 10-year Treasury yield, which is up 6% since the beginning of the month, supports their thesis.
“If the U.S. 10-year yield sustains last week’s push higher, it would support a bullish Financials (cyclicals) and bearish Utilities (defensive) trade that is similar to those coming off the 2016 and 2012 lows,” the strategists wrote.
Suttmeier and Young did caution that the small-cap focused Russell 2000 hasn’t yet confirmed the bullish pattern, and will need to move up to 1,596 to 1,618 to confirm it. At the time of writing, the Russell 2000 is at 1,591 and would need to add between 0.3% to 1.7% to reach the level where it would confirm the bullish move.
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