Why One Analyst Just Said The Phase One Agreement Is “More Trade Truce Than Deal”

Plus, the House is expected to vote on two articles of impeachment against President Trump today, FedEx delivered disappointing earnings, and Tesla may be preparing to lower prices for its Model 3 in China.

Stocks inched further into record territory this morning with the Dow adding 44 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained 0.2%.

The House is set to debate and vote on two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump today. The Democratic-controlled chamber is expected to approve the articles, making Trump just the third president in U.S. history to be formally impeached. Trump sent House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a raging 6-page letter in which he called the impeachment process an “illegal, partisan attempted coup” and said it “represents an unprecedented and unconstitutional abuse of power by Democrat Lawmakers, unequaled in nearly two and a half centuries of American legislative history.” White House counsel Pat Cipollone’s letter said that Trump will stonewall the impeachment process and claimed that the House has violated the Constitution by not passing a resolution authorizing the impeachment inquiry, though there’s no such requirement in the text or history of the Constitution. Pelosi said late Tuesday that the essence of the letter is “really sick,” and said that “no member came to Congress to impeach a president. [But] if we do not act, we will be derelict in our duty.”

More questions are beginning to arise on Wall Street about the phase one trade deal between the U.S. on China. Skepticism is growing as analysts note that many of the details about the deal have not been confirmed by both sides, with China in particular reluctant to commit to a dollar amount for the agricultural purchases it’s willing to buy or say whether it will reduce tariffs on U.S. goods. “There remains more questions than answers,” wrote Chris Krueger, a strategist at Cowen, in a note. The deal “is more trade truce than deal … It is unclear if any China tariffs on U.S. goods have been reduced … Vague promises on IP protections.” While Cesar Rojas, global economist at Citi, said “US agriculture is a key signpost to monitor as the Phase 1 deal appears to be ‘ag centric’ and may moderately boost US crop prices and volatility. However, uncertainty persists about the actual volumes of Chinese soybean, grain and pork purchases, with details on firm commitments lacking and likely to be worked out and also ‘phased in’ over a few years.”

Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot agreed yesterday to a $50 billion merger, creating the world’s fourth-largest carmaker. The two will now take on the challenge of regulatory approval, which may prove difficult, and their promise to cut costs without closing factories. Sweden’s Volvo also agreed today to sell its Japan-based UD Trucks brand to Isuzu Motors for $2.3 billion. Not to be outdone, Japan’s third largest diversified chemicals supplier, Showa Denko, agreed to pay more than double its own market value to acquire its bigger rival, Hitachi Chemical, in a bid to scale its lithium-ion battery and advanced materials businesses. Blackstone Group agreed to buy Hansteen Holdings in a deal that values the U.K. warehouse owner at around $656 million. And finally, New York Life Insurance has agreed to acquire Cigna Corp’s disability and accidental death insurance unit for $6.3 billion. 

FedEx shares are down more than -10% this morning after it missed expectations and lowered FY2020 guidance when it reported earnings after the bell yesterday. The company reported earnings per share of $2.51, on sales of $17.3 billion, compared to analysts’ estimates for earnings per share of $2.78 on sales of $17.6 billion. Looking ahead, FedEx expects earning $10.88 per share in FY2020, far below Wall Street’s expectation of $12.09 for the year. “Fiscal 2020 is a year of continued significant challenges and changes for FedEx, particularly in the quarter just ended due to the compressed shipping season,” said FedEx CEO Frederick Smith. On the earnings call, FedEx CFO Alan Graf said the company will “start lapping Amazon” in 2021, which just barred its 3rd party sellers from using FedEx’s ground delivery network during the holiday season, citing poor delivery performance. “Without giving you specifics, we’re at the bottom, and we’re going to come up off the mat and we’re going to improve through the rest of this year and into the next,” Graf said.

And Tesla shares are up nearly 3% so far today after a report from Bloomberg said that the electric vehicle maker is considering cutting the prices on its China-built Model 3 sedans by 20% or more next year in an effort to lure buyers. Tesla is said to be working towards lowering costs by using more local components, thus importing fewer parts and avoiding tariffs. Prices for the Model 3s built in the new factory outside Shanghai will start at 355,800 yuan, or $50,547.67, and that price will likely be lowered from the second half of 2020. “People shop on price – this will help grow the market share of electric vehicles,” said Bill Russo, founder of Automobility Ltd. “This will also force the competing products to make adjustments.”

Stocks We’re Watching

Installed Building Products (NYSE: IBP): Shares of this homebuilder gained as much as 9% yesterday after RBC Capital analysts led by Mike Dahl upgraded the stock to Outperform and raised their price target for IBP from $73 to $80 – 10.5% higher than the current price. RBC praised Installed Building Products for its margin progression and said that they were selective in the homebuilders in the category as “lagged benefits of the housing rebound should flow through next year along with more balanced price/cost (ex. tariffs), but current valuations reflect this. …We continue to see international growth and tariffs, as they stand today, as key risks, though investor concerns over a non-res slowdown may be overblown in our view.”

Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ: CLNE): Clean Energy Fuels shares jumped more than 20% yesterday following steps from Congress toward passing a bill that could include the reinstatement of a tax credit that the company would benefit from. The “tax extenders” bundle includes an alternative fuels tax credit that has been worth nearly $30 million to the company before it expired in 2017. 

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