Thinking about buying big oil? XOM is a cautionary tale

2020 has been a rough year for energy stocks. Even before COVID-19 became a global health crisis, the sector was rocked by an all-out price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. At the beginning of the year, Brent crude – the benchmark for oil exported from OPEC and OPEC+ countries – was around $70 per barrel. but declined into the mid-$50 range in February. Amid signs the two countries had worked out an agreement, the commodity started to stabilize and increase, but global shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders due to rapidly increasing coronavirus infections put a hammer down on consumer oil demand. By the beginning of last week, Brent crude had bottomed at around $20 per barrel when reports that governments were beginning to lift restrictions on a gradual demand. That has seemed to give the sector a bit of a lift, and Brent crude is now a little above $30 per barrel – but still well off its previous highs.

The collapse of oil prices around the globe means that a sector that was already seeing a fair bit of economic pressure that was keeping oil significantly below the highs most OPEC nations were trying to lift the commodity to, is looking at even tougher times ahead. Economists often point to recessions and the extreme drops in some sectors that come along with them as “washouts” – meaning that the vaporization of demand for a sector’s good and services wipes out companies that weren’t sufficiently prepared to weather the storm. In the energy sector, that doesn’t automatically mean small producers – but it does put a big focus on a company’s balance sheet, liquidity, and debt leverage. That’s why a lot of people that I’ve seen begin talking about playing the recent rise in oil prices have generally been focusing on the biggest players.

Across the world, there are only a few energy companies that fall under the description of “supermajor,” with operations that span the globe and touch multiple industries within the Energy sector. It’s also a dividend king, with a current dividend yield that is far above that offered by the longest-term Treasury bonds. Despite increasing in price by about 50% in the last month, the stock remains about -37% down year to date, and -43% below its 52-week high, last seen in July of last year. That sounds like tempting fodder for a value-oriented investor; but the company’s latest earnings report illuminated COVID-19 effects that I think should at least make you think twice. Let’s take a look.

Fundamental and Value Profile

Exxon Mobil Corporation is engaged in energy business. The Company is engaged in the exploration, production, transportation and sale of crude oil and natural gas, and the manufacture, transportation and sale of petroleum products. The Company also manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics, and a range of specialty products. The Company’s segments include Upstream, Downstream, Chemical, and Corporate and Financing. The Upstream segment operates to explore for and produce crude oil and natural gas. The Downstream operates to manufacture and sell petroleum products. The Chemical segment operates to manufacture and sell petrochemicals. The Company has exploration and development activities in projects located in the United States, Canada/South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia/Oceania. XOM’s current market cap is $189.9 billion.

Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings declined -3.6%, while revenues dropped by -11.74%. In the last quarter, earnings increased a little more than 29% while revenues declined by almost -16.5%. The company’s margin profile is very narrow, with signs that global economic shutdown are making things even more difficult; in the last twelve months, Net Income was 4.42% of Revenues, but dropped to -1.09% in the last quarter.

Free Cash Flow: XOM’s free cash flow is generally healthy at $5.3 billion – but that is a drop of more than -50% from its levels in late 2019, at $11.3 billion. The current number translates to a modest Free Cash Flow Yield of 2.82%.

Debt to Equity: XOM has a debt/equity ratio of .13. This is a conservative number that reflects a generally disciplined approach to debt management. While the company reported around $11 billion in cash and liquid assets against about $31.8 billion in long-term debt, it should be noted that about six months ago, cash was around $4 billion while long-term debt was about $19 billion. In the last earnings report, management acknowledged accessing about $7 billion in new debt to bolster cash for “war chest” savings to weather the time it will take for oil prices to recover, even to late 2019 levels.

Dividend: XOM pays an annual dividend of $3.48 per share, which translates to an annual yield that of about 7.91%. That is one of the highest dividend yields in the entire market that puts their yield far above even long-term bonds, and like other oil supermajors makes them a “dividend king.”

Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target around $69 per share. That suggest that XOM is undervalued by about 57% – which is a very tempting long-term opportunity for any value-focused investor.

Technical Profile

Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.

Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The diagonal red line on the chart above traces the stock’s downward trend from June of last year to its low point in March. It also provides the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. The stock has rallied strongly from that low, touching a high point about a week ago around $48, and very near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line. Current support appears to be around $41, with resistance above the 38.2% retracement line at $48.50. A drop below support could see the stock find next support around $39, but an increase in bearish momentum beyond that point could force the stock down far enough to test its recent low around $30. A push above $48.50 should offer impressive upside to anywhere between the 50% and 61.8% retracement lines, which puts a bullish rally target price somewhere between $54 and $59 per share.

Near-term Keys: Given the strength of the stock’s downward trend and the extreme hit the pandemic has had on XOM’s bottom line, it’s hard to justify the stock’s value proposition right now. There are indications that gasoline demand is picking up as nations and states begin to reopen economic activity, and if that can be sustained, the last quarter could prove to just be an anomaly. That means that if you’re willing to tolerate some volatility in the sector, XOM could  still be a smart value at this price. There could also be some interesting opportunities to work with short-term trades, depending on the stock’s near-term price action. Use a push above $48.50 as a good signal to consider buying the stock or work with call options, using $54 as an initial profit target, but keeping an eye on $59 if bullish momentum remains strong. If the stock’s momentum turns bearish, use a drop below $41 as a signal to think about shorting the stock or buying put options, with an eye on $39 to $37 as an initial bearish target, and $33 to $30 if bearish momentum increases.

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