Is the discount in PSX worth the risk right now?

Over the last month and a half, the market has rebounded pretty strongly off of its bear market lows. Just as the slide that started in February as nations across the globe began imposing economic shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders to slow the COVID-19 infection rate affected just about every sector of the economy, so to has the market’s rally from that March low carried the majority of sectors and industries with it. It’s created a divergence between what looks like the market’s expectation for economic recovery – which looks like a V on a chart – and what economists are actually plotting as economic data comes in, which so far is clearly taking more of an extended U shape.

As economies across the globe begin reopening, and governments begin to lift restrictions on individual activities, even on a gradual basis, it’s reasonable to suggest that certain aspects are going to increase from the virtual stagnation that those shutdowns and self-isolation measures imposed. I generally agree with most reports that estimate that a complete recovery to pre-COVID conditions won’t be seen until possibly 2022; but that doesn’t mean that a gradual, incremental recovery from extreme lows won’t be possible. That includes the energy sector, where early indications in the U.S. show that as national parks and other outdoor areas have reopened, citizens have been anxious to get out of their homes. That should mean that gasoline consumption, which had practically dried up, should start to increase. That increase in demand should then trickle back through the crude oil supply chain, relieving at least a portion of the global supply glut that was already at difficult level before February.

An increase in the flow of oil from exploration, to production and refinement, and to the consumer is something that may not completely rebound to 2019 levels. Even so, given that West Texas crude had fallen into the low teens in April – including a truly wild, anomalous dip into negative territory on April 20 – I think it’s reasonable to suggest that oil could stabilize in the near-term in the $30 to $40 per barrel range. In 2019, some of the most conservative CEOs of major producers and explorers cited operating models their organizations had already put in place, using oil in this range to provide their baseline for profitability. If I’m right, that means that while the pandemic has had an immediate, dramatic impact, and is likely to continue to restrain operations and conditions moving forward, the best-run companies in the sector will still be able to not merely survive, but to be successful and in better position at the actual recovery end than many smaller competitors.

Phillips 66 (PSX) is a refiner that I think will be better positioned than most. While oil refining is its primary business, it also had the foresight to position itself before the downturn, diversifying into crude storage and shale pipeline projects to alleviate congestion in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford areas, where a large amount of U.S. shale has been held up by pipeline limitations. They have also seen an increase in consumer demand in its chemicals business, including packaging for cleaning products. Those are areas that helped to minimize, while not entirely offsetting the near-term effect of cratered refined crude demand, and that could provide a useful tailwind to aid the company’s recovery as refined demand increases. The stock cratered from February to March as well, dropping from around $100 in January to an extreme low at around $40; but since that low, the stock has rebounded to about $75. This is a stock that even before the pandemic began, I considered a bargain at $100; which could mean that if economic activity continues to pick up, PSX could be even more interesting now.

Fundamental and Value Profile

Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining, and marketing and specialties businesses. The Company operates through four segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties (M&S). The Midstream segment gathers, processes, transports and markets natural gas, and transports, stores, fractionates and markets natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the United States. The Chemicals segment consists of its equity investment in Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC (CPChem), which manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics. The Refining segment buys, sells and refines crude oil and other feedstocks at refineries in the United States and Europe. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, such as gasolines, distillates and aviation fuels, primarily in the United States and Europe, as well as includes the manufacturing and marketing of specialty products, and power generation operations. PSX’s current market cap is $33 billion.

Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings more than doubled, at 155%, while sales declined -10.2%. In the last quarter, earnings cratered, at nearly -34% while sales declined -28.2%. PSX’s margin profile is narrow, and reflects the dramatic shift in the last quarter even more sharply, with Net Income over the last twelve months that was a mere 0.35% of Revenues, and -11.75% in the last quarter.

Free Cash Flow: PSX’s free cash flow is an interesting counter to the negative earnings and Net Income picture, at a little over $1.8 billion for the trailing twelve month period. That translates to a Free Cash Flow yield of 5.6%. This number has declined over the last six months, but also increased from the quarter prior, when it was around $1 billion.

Debt to Equity: PSX has a debt/equity ratio of .45, a low number that indicates the company operates with a conservative philosophy about leverage. Their balance sheet shows $1.12 billion in cash and liquid assets versus $10.7 billion in long-term debt.

Dividend: PSX pays an annual dividend of $3.60 per share, which translates to a yield of 4.91% at the stock’s current price.

Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target around $98 per share. That suggest that PSX is undervalued by about 31% at its current price.

Technical Profile

Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.

Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The chart above shows the stock’s price action over the past year. The red diagonal line traces the stock’s downward trend from November 2019 to the bottom in March at around $40. The stock has started a solid short-term upward trend from that point that saw the stock rebound to the 38.2% retracement line, and even move above it in the last week or so.The stock is currently just a few dollars below the 50% retracement line, and I have resistance at the stock’s recent peak at around $77. A push above that point could give the stock room to rally to $80 at least, with even more upside at $80 if bullish momentum stays strong. Support is at the 38.2% retracement line, around $70.50. A drop below that point shows immediate downside to around $64.60 based on previous pivots, with $58-$59 below that point.

Near-term Keys: The value proposition on PSX is compelling enough that if you think the last quarter was anomalous, you might be tempted to go ahead and buy the stock. Keep in mind, that requires both a very long-term view as well as the willingness to endure quite a bit more volatility that I think will extend into the rest of 2020. If you prefer to work with short-term trading strategies, a move above $77 could be useful signal to buy the stock or work with call options, with an eye on $80 or above offering some nice opportunities to take quick profits. A drop below $70.55, on the other hand would be strong signal to consider shorting the stock or working with put options, with $64 acting as a very attractive initial bearish profit target.

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