No matter what the market or economy is doing at any given time – bull market, bear market, expansion, contraction, or stagnation – one of the things that makes it compelling is the reality that there is always a new opportunity to take advantage of. That doesn’t mean that you can ignore broad market conditions or consider the risks of making an investment at the wrong time, but it does mean that if you are careful and cautious, with a conservative approach to how much risk you do choose to be exposed to when you decide to make an investment, you can keep your money working for you in any market environment.
More than two decades of experience in the market have given me the opportunity to learn a lot of lessons – some by study, but most by hard-won (and sometimes expensive) experience. Over that time, I’ve experimented with a lot of different trading and investing systems to find the approach that I think makes the most sense for the goals I’ve set for myself. If you’ve followed my articles in this space, you know that I prefer value-oriented investing over just about anything else. That is because the market may be bullish or bearish, but there are always stocks out there that fit the classic description of being a “good company at a nice price.”
That constant search for value means that you have to be able to cast a wide net. Sometimes bargain stocks are easier to find than at other times, and sometimes it’s a bit more difficult. Over time, I’ve built up a good list of stocks that I follow on a pretty regular basis. I’ve been able to use many of them quite a bit to make good investments, and I can come back to them periodically after closing a position to find a good new opportunity. It’s also fun when I come across a new company that I haven’t looked at before.
Apogee Enterprises Inc. (APOG) is a small-cap stock in an industry, Building Products that you might not think about in a world that continues to grapple with the impact of COVID-19; in fact in their latest earnings call management was frank about the impact that early retail shutdowns had on their own business, forcing factory closures and a complete shutdown of one of their divisions for most of the second quarter of the year. Despite that difficulty, the company’s measure to contain costs and transition back to business quickly as their customers began reopening in July paid off, with the company delivering better-than-expected numbers in their quarterly report. Their balance sheet also shows quite a bit of resilience that seems to have them well-positioned to build on that success moving forward. That news runs directly counter to the stock’s price performance, with the stock crashing from around $34 in February to a low around $14 at the bottom of the bear market. Despite rebounding into June to around $20, the stock has been hovering since that point in a narrow trading range that I think reflects the market’s indecision about the company. In the meantime, the value proposition, along with the company’s fundamental strength creates what could be an excellent opportunity for a patient investor looking for a good long-term opportunity.
Fundamental and Value Profile
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. is engaged in the design and development of glass solutions for enclosing commercial buildings and framing art. The Company operates through four segments: Architectural Glass, Architectural Services, Architectural Framing Systems and Large-Scale Optical Technologies (LSO). The Architectural Glass segment fabricates coated glass used in customized window and wall systems. The Architectural Services segment designs, engineers, fabricates and installs the walls of glass, windows and other curtainwall products making up the outside skin of commercial and institutional buildings. The Architectural Framing Systems segment designs, engineers, fabricates and finishes the aluminum frames used in customized aluminum and glass window, curtainwall, storefront and entrance systems. The Large-Scale Optical Technologies segment manufactures glass and acrylic products for the custom picture framing and fine art markets. APOG’s current market cap is $543.7 million.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings increased 1.65%, while revenues declined -10.52%. In the last quarter, earnings and sales both improved; earnings increased by a whopping 386.67%, while sales were 10.5% higher. APOG operates with a narrow, but improving margin profile; over the last twelve months, Net Income was 3.72% of Revenues, and strengthened in the last quarter to 5.63%.
Free Cash Flow: APOG’s free cash flow is very healthy, at about $137 million, and translates to a Free Cash Flow Yield of 24.85%. This number also marks a useful improvement from the quarter prior, when Free Cash Flow was $97.45 million; that is a sign of strength given the challenges the company faced in the early part of the year.
Dividend Yield: APOG’s dividend is $.75 per share, and translates to an annual yield of about 3.59% at the stock’s current price.
Debt to Equity: APOG has a debt/equity ratio of 0.03. This is a very low number, and is indicative of a conservative approach to leverage by management. Their balance sheet shows healthy liquidity, with cash and liquid assets of $11.64 million in the last quarter. This number was about $97.45 million in the quarter prior. They also currently have $15.67 million of long-term debt. The company’s margin profile indicates that they should have no problem servicing their debt.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to worth with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term target at about $41 per share. That suggests APOG is trading at a massive discount, being undervalued by about 99% right now.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: This chart traces the stock’s movement over the last year. The red diagonal line marks the stock’s downward slide from a 52-week high at around $41 to its low point in mid-March at around $14; it also provides the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. The stock rallied strongly from that low to a peak in early June at the 50% retracement line, marking a near-term peak at around $27 per share before falling back to find support at around $20. In the last month, the stock’s trading range has narrowed, with immediate resistance around $22 and support at $20. A break above $22 should find next resistance around $24 where the 38.2% retracement line, with $27 possible if bullish momentum accelerates. A drop below $20, on the other hand could see downside to about $16 before finding new support, back on previous pivot activity during the spring.
Near-term Keys: If you’re looking for a short-term, bullish trade, I think immediate upside in APOG could be limited given current market conditions; however, if the stock does break above $22, it could offer a useful signal to buy the stock or work with call options, with an eye on a quick exit target at around $24. A drop below support at $20, on the other hand, could offer a useful signal to consider shorting the stock or working with put options, with an eye on $16 as a bearish profit target. The stock’s value proposition is compelling, and the company’s fundamentals are very solid. If you aren’t afraid of the potential for the stock to be volatile in current market conditions, I think there is a long-term opportunity, especially looking beyond the current health crisis to take advantage of a stock that the rest of the market doesn’t recognize right now.