Within the scope of long-term investing, there are two primary methods most investors use: investing for growth, or looking for value. I write a lot in this space about value-oriented investing, because more than two decades of study and hard experience have taught me that it is the investing method that suits me best. One of the interesting things about my studies of the stock market is the way that most of us assume that working with one investing method excludes the use of any others. That usually means that the rules for one method don’t work for the other.
Growth and value methods generally don’t agree for one primary reason: growth investing likes to emphasize stocks at the top end of their historical price ranges. Stocks making new highs within an upward trend are usually taken as a positive for growth investors, particularly when the broad market’s trend is clearly bullish. With all of the major market indices pushing to a new set of all-time highs within the last week, I’m starting to see more and more commentary about the resumption of broadly bullish conditions coinciding with a reopening economy and the ever-hoped-for “return to normal” that we all long to see after more than a year of pandemic-forced restrictions.
Value investing prefers to focus on stocks that are working at the low end of their historical ranges; that increases the odds that the stock will represent a good bargain, particularly if the company’s fundamental profile is strong. Sometimes, however, a company that is plumbing those new lows can also show some interesting growth characteristics, particularly in its fundamental profile. For a value investor, that’s usually something that should make the stock even more interesting, because it suggests the long-term opportunity could be much better than even an optimistic value analysis may forecast.
Sometimes, an unexpected convergence between growth and value investing happens, where a stock that has been following an extended upward trend still offers a useful value. That doesn’t happen frequently, but it is one the reasons that I’ve learned not to simply dismiss a stock due to its current price level without taking a deeper dive into what their book of business actually tells me about their value proposition.
Buckle Inc. (BKE) may be just the kind of stock right now that I’m talking about. The stock has been following a long-term upward trend since recovering from its own pandemic-induced low point and just recently retraced off of a 5-year high point. This is a trend that at first glance I would be tempted to dismiss given the challenges of the past year for companies, like BKE that rely heavily on foot traffic in shopping malls, but diving into their fundamentals reveals a solid balance sheet and improving operating profile that is interesting. Management suspended the stock’s dividend payout temporarily last year, but resumed it in the last quarter of 2020, which is a strong sign of confidence in their ability to keep driving profitability and growth. Do those strengths also translate to a useful valuation given the stock’s strong performance over the past year? Let’s find out.
Fundamental and Value Profile
The Buckle, Inc. is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories for young men and women. The Company operates approximately 446 retail stores in 42 states throughout the United States under the names Buckle and The Buckle. The Company markets a selection of brand name casual apparel, including denims, other casual bottoms, tops, sportswear, outerwear, accessories and footwear. The Company provides customer services, such as free hemming, free gift-wrapping, easy layaways, the Buckle private label credit card, and a guest loyalty program. Its offers denims from brands, such as Miss Me, Rock Revival, KanCan, Bridge by GLY, Flying Monkey, Levi’s, and Wrangler. Other brands include Hurley, Billabong, Affliction, American Fighter, Howitzer, Oakley, Fox, Obey, RVCA, Salvage, 7 Diamonds, Nixon, Free People, White Crow, Salt Life, Corral, Reef, Kustom, Timberland, SOREL, Hey Dude, Steve Madden, SAXX, Stance, Ray-Ban, Wanakome, Champion, Fossil, and G-Shock. BKE’s current market cap is $2.1 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings increased 38.5% while revenue grew by 17.65%. In the last quarter, earnings were about 56.5% higher, while revenues increased by 27%. The stock’s operating profile over the last twelve months is very healthy, with Net Income at 14.44% of Revenues. The number got even stronger in the last quarter, at 20.58%.
Free Cash Flow: BKE’s free cash flow is very healthy, at $219.87 million. This number translates to a healthy Free Cash Flow Yield of 10.36%.
Debt to Equity: BKE has a debt/equity ratio of 0, which is indicative of the fact the company operates with no debt. Their balance sheet also shows $322.15 million in cash and liquid assets – an increase from $202.7 million a year ago.
Dividend: BKE pays an annual dividend of $1.32 per share, which translates to a yield of 3.12% at the stock’s current price.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target around $21.25 per share. That means that despite the fundamental strengths I just described, BKE is significantly overvalued, with -50% downside to that fair value price, and a useful discount price at around $17 per share.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The diagonal red line traces the stock’s upward trend over the past year, from a low point at around $13 to its recent high at around $44 per share; it also provides the reference for calculating the Fibonacci retracement levels indicated by the horizontal red lines on the right side of the chart. The stock’s high came just about a week ago, with the stock fading back just a bit from that point. That puts immediate resistance at $44 and current support at around $41.50. A push above $44 should offer upside to about $47.50 based on the range between current support (was previous resistance until this month) and immediate resistance. A drop below $41.50, on the other hand could find next support at around $39 based on previous pivot activity around that level in February and March.
Near-term Keys: BKE’s upward trend over the past year is impressive, and looks like tempting fodder for aggressive, growth-oriented investors; however I also find that it reflects much of the speculative nature of that strategy, as investors have clearly been buying this stock for the past year based primarily on the expectation of a return to normal life that is reflected by the extremely overvalued status of the stock. That means that the best way to work with this stock is to focus on short-term trading strategies; a push above $44 could offer an interesting signal to buy the stock or work with call options, using a short-term target at $47.50 as a useful price to take profits. A drop below $41.50 on the other hand could be a good signal to consider shorting the stock or buying put options, with $39 acting as a useful near-term profit target on a bearish trade.