For most of the last two years – even before the pandemic started – one of the areas that I have been able to find some interesting valuations to work have come from the Telecommunications industry. Some of the largest players in the industry do much more than just telecommunications; AT&T Inc. (T) has, of course long been one of the largest telecomm companies in the United States, which has also gave them the ability to branch out and diversify their business into the entertainment world. 2020 has proven to be a challenging year for many of this “diversified telecomm services” company’s businesses; that has helped to keep the stock price relatively low for the last year, but the latest earnings report shows some serious signs of deterioration that a material recovery could take longer than expected.
In 2015, the company acquired DirecTV, a segment that has struggled for the last couple of years, following a longer-term theme as consumers are increasingly “cutting the cord” on traditional cable or satellite TV services. T has been looking to sell DirecTV, along with other underperforming segments to private equity investors, but would be unlikely to recoup the $49 billion it paid (latest estimates put final expected bids from unnamed, interested parties in the $15 billion range). In 2018, T’s acquisition of Time Warner gave it a foothold in the same space occupied by media companies like Viacom and Disney – but a lot of people are saying that a new deal, to spin off the WarnerMedia unit into a new company merged with Discovery is a sign that AT&T is admitting it made a bad decision with the acquisition. I think it is worth noting that T will receive $43 billion that will be used to reduce debt, and still retain 71% ownership of the new company.
T is an interesting mix of opportunity and risk right now, as the spinoff will create a new publicly traded company, with an expanded portfolio of programming to offer on both traditional and streaming platforms; it will also allow T to put its primary focus back on its core telecommunications businesses. The pandemic forced a practically complete shutdown of all WarnerMedia production, which put the company’s operating margins into negative territory over the last year, and have provided a dark cloud that many analysts seem to be fixated on, even as economic activity indicates that the company is starting to emerge from that challenging period with material gains in Net Income, along with still-healthy Free Cash Flow and healthy liquidity. Are the those strengths enough to make T’s stock a good bet for a long-term, value-oriented investor?
Fundamental and Value Profile
AT&T Inc. is a holding company. The Company is a provider of telecommunications, media and technology services globally. The Company operates through four segments: Communication segment, WarnerMedia segment, Latin America segment and Xandr segment. The Communications segment provides wireless and wireline telecom, video and broadband services to consumers.The business units of the Communication segment includes Mobility, Entertainment Group and Business Wireline. The WarnerMedia segment develops, produces and distributes feature films, television, gaming and other content over various physical and digital formats. The business units of the WarnerMedia segment includes Turner, Home Box Office and Warner Bros. Latin America segment provides entertainment services in Latin America and wireless services in Mexico. Viro and Mexico are the business units of the Latin America segment. The Xandr segment provides advertising services. T has a current market cap of about $183.1 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings increased by about 14.5%, while revenues declined by -5.7%. In the last quarter, earnings were -2.25% lower, while revenues -9.36% lower. T operates with an operating profile that sunk into negative territory during the pandemic but has been showing significant improvement over the last couple of quarters. Over the last twelve months, Net Income was 0.67% of Revenues, and strengthened to 14.82% in the last quarter.
Free Cash Flow: T’s free cash flow is healthy, at nearly $25.7 billion. This number has increased steadily since early 2015, from about $10 billion. The current number translates to a useful Free Cash Flow Yield of 14.12%.
Dividend: T’s annual divided is $2.08 per share, which translates to a compelling, but temporary yield of 8.11% at the stock’s current price. It should be noted that management intends to cut the dividend after the WarnerMedia spinoff is completed (expected sometime in 2022) to reflect the smaller size of the remaining company.
Debt/Equity: T carries a Debt/Equity ratio of .86, which is generally considered a pretty conservative number that doesn’t really paint a complete picture. Their balance sheet shows $11.8 billion in cash and liquid assets versus $155.6 billion in long-term debt. Much of that debt is associated with the Time Warner acquisition. The spinoff will pay down a portion of that amount, but still leave more than $100 billion. As with other companies in this industry, T has also historically carried a lot of debt, with more than $100 million in long-term debt on the books since mid-2015. T’s healthy Free Cash Flow and improving Net Income indicate they should have no problem servicing the debt they have.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target at a little above $31 per share. That suggests that the stock is undervalued, with 22% upside from its current price. It is also worth noting that prior to the latest earnings report, this same analysis yielded a “fair value” target price at around $33 per share.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The red diagonal line measures the length of the stock’s downward trend from a May peak at around $34 to its low, reached earlier this month at around $25; it also informs the Fibonacci trend retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. After consolidating in September between $27 and $28 in September, the stock broke down even further before stabilizing again at around $25, marking current support just prior to the stock’s newest earnings report, which was released last week. Immediate resistance is at around $26 based on a temporary high at the end of last week at that point. A push above $26 should have limited upside, since next resistance is expected at the low end of September’s trading range around $27, while a drop below $25 should also see limited downside; the stock’s lowest price in the last decade is around its current level, with dips to $24 and $23 last being seen in 2010.
Near-term Keys: T offers a high dividend that makes for tempting bait for income-seeking investors; but don’t ignore the fact that the dividend will be reduced in 2022 once the WarnerMedia spinoff has been completed. The market appears to be dismissing the generally improving fundamentals the company has reported over the last few quarters, and that is one of the main reasons T’s value proposition is attractive right now. The stock’s consolidation at its current range – near to lows not seen in more than 10 years – means that short-term trading strategies have very little near-term opportunity right now. For practical purposes, the stock would need to push above $28 to signal a reversal of the current downward trend; that would be the best signal to consider buying the stock or working with call options, with possible upside in that case to around $30.50 where the 61.8% retracement line currently sits. A drop below $25 could be used to consider shorting the stock or buying put options, so long as you intend to work with very short profit targets; the stock’s next expected support between $24 and $23 means opportunity on the downside is very limited.