The deeper into the year we get, the more uncertainty seems to be the theme that will define 2022. From geopolitics to economics, all of it together has created a pretty constant state of uncertainty, and elevated volatility in the stock market.
Economic uncertainty usually suggests that cyclically-sensitive industries are the most exposed to downside risk. One of the industries that certainly fits that general description is the Auto industry. As measured by the Nasdaq Global Auto Index ETF (CARZ), this is an industry that has dropped almost -29% since late November 2021. The decline has really accelerated since the start of 2022, exacerbated by supply chain challenges, increasing fuel prices that started in late 2021, and were compounded by the Russia-Ukraine war. Rising interest rates to head off accelerating inflation is only adding to the pressure now, which I think makes companies in cyclically sensitive industries like Autos and Auto Companies particularly vulnerable right now.
MGA is a Canadian company whose biggest customers include the Detroit Big Three automakers and German brands Daimler, BMW and Volkswagen. And while they’ve taken their lumps with the rest of the industry and the market, their balance sheet has been impressively resilient. They are also among the few companies in the industry that managed to maintain their dividend payout throughout the pandemic, and in fact raised their dividend payout following their earnings report in February of this year. They also have enough of a presence in the electrical vehicle (EV) market to see positive impacts from that continued, emerging auto trend, with additional tailwinds from that part of their business expected to be a growth driver into 2023.
The stock enjoyed a massive run up in price from its March 2020 low at around $23 to a high in June of 2021 above $104. From that point, the stock has dropped back almost -43% to its current price around $57 per share. The question, of course, is whether their overall fundamental strength, with that attractive dividend, and the stock’s drop back is enough to also make the stock a good value, or is broad market risk right now so high that it would be better to stay away and wait for a better price? Here are the numbers.
Fundamental and Value Profile
Magna International Inc. (Magna) is a mobility technology company. The Company’s segments include Body Exteriors & Structures, Power & Vision, Seating System and Complete Vehicles. Its product capabilities include body, chassis, exterior, seating, powertrain, active driver assistance, electronics, mirrors & lighting, mechatronics and roof systems. Its products include sealing systems, sliding folding and modular roofs, active aerodynamics, lightweight composites, fuel systems, engineered glass, body systems, electronic controllers, interior mirrors, exterior mirrors, tail lamps, small lighting, seat structures, door systems, power closure systems, mechanism & hardware solutions, foam & trim products, complete vehicle manufacturing, engineering services and fuel systems. MGA has a current market cap of about $17.4 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the last twelve months, earnings declined -31%; Revenues also dropped by -5.3%. In the last quarter, earnings slipped by -1.54%, while sales were 5.84% higher. MGA’s operating profile has historically been narrow, and in 2021 had shown signs of deterioration, however the last quarter shows that profitability is improving. In the last quarter; Net Income versus Revenues was 3.78%, versus 3.54% over the last twelve months.
Free Cash Flow: MGA’s free cash flow is healthy, at almost $1.15 billion. This number has declined over the last couple of quarters, as shown by the fact Free Cash Flow was $1.6 billion in the quarter prior and $3.9 billion a year ago. The current number translates to a Free Cash Flow Yield of about 6.43%.
Dividend: MGA pays an annual dividend of $1.80 per share, which translates to an annual yield of 3.16% at the stock’s current price. The company has also increased the dividend from $1.32 per share, per year steadily since late 2018, and which includes an increase from $1.60 per share at the beginning of 2021. An increasing dividend is a strong indication of management’s confidence in their business and long-term strategy.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target around $57 per share. That suggests that MGA is fairly valued at its current price, with a practical discount price at around $45.50. It is also worth nothing that in the first quarter of this year, this same analysis yielded a fair value target at around $64 per share.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: The chart above displays the stock’s price activity over the past year. The red diagonal line traces the stock’s downward trend from June of last year to its 52-week low at around $54.50. It also provides the basis for the Fibonacci retracement lines on the right side of the chart. The stock has been consolidating at the bottom of a long-term downward trend since early March, with the stock most recently falling off of a pivot high at around $67 where immediate resistance sits and appearing to find new, current support at around $57. A drop below $57 could see the stock retest its 52-week low at around $54.50, with additional downside to about $50 if selling activity accelerates. A push above $67 should have upside to about $71 where the 38.2% retracement line is waiting.
Near-term Keys: If you’re looking for a short-term bullish trading setup, and you don’t mind being very aggressive, a bounce off of current support at around $57 could be a good signal to buy the stock or work with call options, with an eye on $65 $67 as a practical bullish profit target. A drop below $57 would act as a signal to short the stock or to consider buying put options, with a bearish profit target at around $54.50, and $50 possible if bearish momentum accelerates. MGA would have to drop to about $45.50 to offer a useful value proposition right now, and given the current pace of bearish momentum and broad market uncertainty, I think it makes sense to wait to see if the stock retests its recent low to offer a more impressive opportunity to buy the stock at its current price.