Silver markets have been very noisy during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to sit on top of the $21 level. The $21 level is an area that has been somewhat important, but the bigger picture looks negative regardless. When I look at this chart, it’s hard not to notice the big “H pattern”, and therefore it’s likely that we are going to go looking to reach the $20 level given enough time.
The $22 level above continues to offer resistance and will more likely than not be important due to the 50 Day EMA heading toward it yet again. Ultimately, I think this is a market that will have plenty of sellers every time at rallies, mainly due to the fact that the US interest rates continue to strengthen, therefore will continue to work against the value of silver itself. Pay close attention to the US Dollar Index as well, as it also has a negative correlation to this market.
It is not until the silver market breaks above the $22.50 level that I would consider this market as one that you can be a buyer of, mainly due to the fact that it has been so negative for so long. Going forward, I do believe that we will eventually test the $20 level, and breaking below that level opens up quite a bit of negative selling pressure as well. Underneath the $20 level, silver probably drops to the $18 level, maybe even as low as $12 over the longer term. Keep in mind that silver is also an industrial metal, and that is not helping it right now, as a global recession seems to be coming.