No matter how much the world moves away from COVID-19, the truth is that it isn’t going away.
The move by government entities as well as healthcare organizations around the world to “endemic” phase protocols doesn’t mean the disease has been eradicated. It really means that the disease is acknowledged as a permanent part of life, in a sense like the various flu variants that emerge every year. Endemic phase operations also mean that while vaccines, boosters, and anti-viral treatments will have a long-term, permanent place in the prescription drug ecosystem, companies that shifted operations in the early phase of the pandemic to focus almost exclusively on COVID-19 have been been refocusing on the core elements of their business.
Some of the names that showed early promise also received the most attention from analysts and media types, at least in the earliest stages of the pandemic. One of those companies is Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), a large-cap company with treatments for diseases such as HIV/AIDS, cancer, and other respiratory diseases. One of their antiviral drugs, remdesivir was originally created to combat the hepatitis C virus, but also demonstrated a significant enough benefit in clinical trials with hospitalized COVID patients to gain emergency approval from the FDA. Remdesevir (sold under the brand name Veklury) gave the company a revenue stream that in the most recent quarter represented about 13.5% of sales.
Outside of COVID-19, the company has also been investing heavily since 2019 to bolster its drug pipeline, with its acquisition of Immunomedics providing a newly approved treatment for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer that was approved by the FDA earlier this year and is expected to generate $3.5 billion in sales by 2025. GILD enjoys a dominant share of the HIV treatment market, which is expected to see long-term growth in the 2-3% range per year. Along with its cancer treatments, HIV treatment represents the second, primary leg of GILD’s long-term growth strategy. Those are net positives, especially as sales of Veklury as a percentage of GILD’s business have begun to fade.
Since peaking at around $90 per share in November of 2022, the stock has faded back into a new, long-term, gradually sloping downward trend that has seen the stock give back about -15% of its price over that period. The company’s strengths include healthy profit margins and Free Cash Flow, along with good liquidity and manageable debt. Has the stock dropped enough to allow those fundamentals to shift its value proposition in favor of a long-term opportunity? Let’s see what we can find.
Fundamental and Value Profile
Gilead Sciences, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in advancing medicines to prevent and treat life-threatening diseases, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), viral hepatitis and cancer. The Company offers products in HIV, Onocolgy, Liver Disease, Vekulaery, and Other. Under HIV, it offers Biktarvy, Complera/Eviplera, Genvoya, Odefsey, Stribild, and Truvada. Its Veklury (remdesivir) is a nucleotide analog RNA polymerase inhibitor indicated for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Under oncology it offers cell therapy containing Tecartus and Yescarta. Under this Liver Disease consists of Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) (Ledipasvir/Sofosbuvir and Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir) and Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) / hepatitis delta virus (HDV) (Vemlidy and Viread). The Company’s other products include AmBisome and Letairis. It also operates a portfolio of small molecule inhibitors targeting PARP1 for oncology and MK2 for inflammatory diseases. GILD has a current market cap of $95.7 billion.
Earnings and Sales Growth: Over the past year, earnings declined by more than -35%, while sales were -3.6% lower. In the last quarter, earnings were about -18% lower, while sales also decreased, by about -14%. GILD’s operating profile is generally healthy; Net Income as a percentage of Revenues was 20.65% in the trailing twelve-month period, but weakened to 15.92% in the last quarter. Despite the decline, GILD’s operating profile remains a source of strength.
Free Cash Flow: GILD’s Free Cash Flow is healthy, at about $8.3 billion. On a Free Cash Flow Yield basis, that translates to 8.76%. It should be noted that this number has declined steadily since the beginning of 2016, when Free Cash Flow peaked at $19.5 billion, but has also improved from late 2019, when Free Cash Flow was about $6.6 billion. It does mark a drop from $9.4 billion a year ago.
Debt to Equity: GILD has a debt/equity ratio of 1.10, which is high, and also reflects increasing debt the company has taken on, in part to complete its acquisition of Immunomedics; but by itself this number doesn’t really tell the whole story. Their balance sheet shows $5.8 billion in cash in the last quarter (down from $23.9 billion at the end of 2020) against roughly $23 billion in long-term debt. The company’s operating profile suggests there should be no problem servicing its debt. I think it is also worth noting that at the beginning of 2022, long-term was about $34.6 billion.
Dividend: GILD pays a dividend of $3 per share (up from $2.52 in 2019, $2.72 in 2020, $2.84 in 2021, and $2.92 before the most recent earnings announcement), which translates to an annual yield of about 3.93% at the stock’s current price. Management’s ability to increase the dividend is a positive sign.
Price/Book Ratio: there are a lot of ways to measure how much a stock should be worth; but I like to work with a combination of Price/Book and Price/Cash Flow analysis. Together, these measurements provide a long-term, fair value target around $61 per share, which means that GILD is overvalued by about -20%, with a useful bargain price at around $49.
Technical Profile
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Current Price Action/Trends and Pivots: the chart above covers the last year of price activity for GILD. The diagonal red line traces the stock’s upward trend from its late August 2022 low at around $59 to its to its December peak at almost $90; it also provides the baseline for the Fibonacci retracement lines shown on the right side of the chart. The stock has fallen into a clear downward trend from that point, but found its latest pivot low earlier this week at around $74.50 per share, right where the 50% retracement line lies, and which also marks current support. Immediate resistance is around the 38.2% retracement line, in the $78 price area. A push above $78 should see near-term upside to about $83 before finding next resistance. A drop below $74.50 could see the stock fall to about $71, where the 61.8% retracement is waiting to offer next support.
Near-term Keys: Given the limited upside associated with GILD’s current valuation, and some warning signs in the form of declining Net Income, Free Cash Flow, and Cash, the stock doesn’t work as a useful value right now. That means that the best probabilities in working with this stock lie in short-term trading strategies. You could use a break above $78 as an opportunity to buy the stock or work with call options, with $83 offering a practical profit target on a short-term, bullish trade. A drop below $74.50 could be a signal to consider shorting the stock or buying put options, with $71 offering a practical profit target level on a bearish trade.