Fresh geopolitical concerns have sent gold soaring, and it looks like the shiny metal is just getting started.
Unnerved by the situation between the U.S. and Iran, investors have been flocking to safe havens this week pushing gold to a seven year high.
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On Tuesday, the precious metal briefly surged to $1,613—its highest level since April 2013—before dropping back down to $1,559 following President Trump’s statement that Iran “appears to be standing down” following a casualty-free missile attack on an Iraqi base housing U.S. troops.
And according to two analysts, there’s a golden opportunity with the shiny yellow metal now.
Piper Sandler chief market technician Craig Johnson says gold has room to run.
“I look at this chart of gold and it looks like to us we can trade as high as $1,760,” or 13% higher than the current price, Johnson said. “I don’t think this trade is over for gold, and I would have a little slice of this in everyone’s portfolio.”
BK Asset Management’s managing director of FX strategy, Boris Schlossberg, also noted that gold was on the rise before the conflict with Iran even started.
Schlossberg says the rally in gold was sparked by the Fed, and he says that the continuation of the rally is dependent on the central bank’s balance sheet.
“Overall, I think it’s a buy-the-dip story for the time being until the Fed starts getting tight,” Schlossberg said.
Schlossberg said investors looking for a way to play gold should consider Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM).
“Newmont Mining just raised their dividend to 2.4%,” Schlossberg said. “It’s the only gold miner that’s part of the S&P 500. If gold really starts to run, it’s going to be broadly on institutions, so that’s an interesting way to play it.”
One other bright spot for the yellow metal, according to Scotiabank commodity strategist Nicky Shiels, is that gold has found a higher floor.
“$1,450 was the new hard floor but gold is now firmly in a spot where the risk/reward in being directionally short is not favorable – $1,500 is increasingly looking like the new 2020 floor,” Shiels wrote in a note.
“Gold’s repricing was aligned with a shift in the Fed in 2H’2019, but elevated pricing also incorporates the potential threat of ‘fear drivers’ such as trade, political/geopolitical & growths risks re-emerging, which markets have learned can play out at the drop of a tweet at any point,” Shiels added.
“The ability for gold to consistently adapt from internalizing old drivers (escalating trade rhetoric, negative risk appetite and moves in rates in Q3’19) to new drivers (falling US$, upping of inflation expectations, curve steepness, EMFX & commod FX strength in Dec 19), back again to internalizing its haven qualities (today) is a constructive development for the longer-term outlook,” she concluded.
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