(Bloomberg) — The World Bank is concerned that “further adverse shocks” could push the global economy into recession in 2023, with small states especially vulnerable. The warning is contained in an abstract for the bi-annual “Global Economic Prospects” report due for release on Tuesday and visible on the group’s Open Knowledge Repository website. Even without […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Equity investors hoping for a better year in 2023 will be disappointed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists, who said the bear market phase is not over yet. “The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached,” strategists including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell wrote in […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve officials will maintain their resolutely hawkish stance next week, laying the groundwork for interest rates reaching 5% by March 2023, moves that seem likely to lead to a US and global recession, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said. The Federal Open Market Committee will raise rates by 75 basis points for a […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — US stocks may resume their slump as they have only just begun to price in a recession, according to Citigroup Inc.’s quant strategists. The market has turned “decidedly defensive again,” the strategists including Hong Li wrote in a note Tuesday. Recent synchronized moves suggest “equity investors are paying closer attention to the increased […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — A hawkish Federal Reserve crushed whatever hope investors had, plunging the stock market into a doom spiral last week and sparking traders’ fears that even more losses are on the way. Any hopes that stocks had priced in the bulk of the bad news heading into the Fed’s latest meeting are now dashed. […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. urged investors to pile into commodities as most recession risks coursing through global markets are overblown in the near term, arguing that raw materials stand to rebound amid a profound energy crisis and tight physical fundamentals. “Our economists view the risk of a recession outside Europe in the next […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, raising chances of a recession, as decades-high inflation undercut consumer spending and Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes stymied business investment and housing demand. Gross domestic product fell at a 0.9% annualized rate after a 1.6% decline in the first three months of the year, the […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes are wearing out their welcome in bond markets, with a measure of the yield curve that Chair Jerome Powell has highlighted as a recession indicator sending out a warning message. The difference between rates on where three-month bills are now and where they will be in 18 months […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Bob Michele, a bond market veteran for more than four decades, predicts a 75% chance of a US recession over the next 18 months, but thinks it’s priced in. “Clients are returning to the bond market, especially corporate bonds,” Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management’s chief investment officer, said on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — After underestimating the worst inflation outbreak in decades, central banks are now driving their economies headlong toward recession in order to tame prices. The stark outlook is stoking fears that policy makers will end up overreaching as they push ahead with aggressive interest-rate hikes, just as some now concede they overstimulated through the […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — For all the volatility whipsawing the US bond market, traders are showing increasing confidence that the alarm bells warning of a recession will only get louder. The jump in consumer prices in June by another four-decade high reinforced the near-certainty that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening monetary policy aggressively, with markets placing […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Bill Gross has one piece of advice for those looking to buy dips in bonds, stocks and commodities: just don’t. The former bond king said one-year Treasury bills are a better alternative to almost any other investments, as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes lead to a “strong” possibility of recession. Gross, co-founder of […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — A looming recession, runaway inflation, an energy crisis in Europe and a euro that’s sunk to near parity with the dollar: corporate earnings worldwide face a laundry list of challenges this season that could create another reason to dump stocks. After a tumultuous first half for global equities, with $18 trillion in value […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Investors are hoarding cash and hiding in US Treasuries as they dump equities amid fears that the US economy is headed for a recession. Nearly $63 billion flowed into cash in the week through July 6, while global equity funds had redemptions of $4.6 billion, according to Bank of America Corp. note citing […]
Read MoreIllustration by Elia Barbieri Economists and pundits who expect recession but not until 2023 may soon be surprised to find it already at our doorstep. That’s a big deal. It matters whether a recession comes sooner or later, for the following reasons. First, despite large setbacks in global equity and credit markets this year, investors […]
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