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Could the Fed’s Rate Decision Trigger a Recession? Here’s What You Need to Know

The Federal Reserve (Fed) plays a critical role in the U.S. economy by adjusting interest rates, a tool used to control inflation, manage employment levels, and stabilize financial markets. The decision to raise or lower interest rates can have far-reaching effects on everything from consumer spending to business investment. Understanding why the Fed adjusts rates […]

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Fed’s George Says Higher US Savings May Also Mean Higher Rates Needed

(Bloomberg) — Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said ample US savings will help to buffer households but could also mean higher interest rates are needed to cool spending. George told a panel Tuesday in Santiago hosted by the Central Bank of Chile that if savings are concentrated in wealthier households who tend […]

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Wall Street Economists Split on Whether Fed Cuts Rates in 2023

(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s biggest banks agree the Federal Reserve will hike US interest rates further into next year, but are at odds over how high it will take them and whether it will be cutting by the end of 2023. In a reflection of how tough Chair Jerome Powell’s job is becoming, leading economists […]

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Hawkish Fed

Fed May Need to Raise Rates to 6%, Monetary Economist Taylor Says

(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates significantly higher, to perhaps 6%, to reduce inflation, influential monetary economist John Taylor said on Friday. He told an economic conference in New York that rates were still “quite low” when measured in real, inflation-adjusted terms or when compared to monetary policy rules like the […]

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Fed’s Bullard Sees 2023 Shift With End of Front-Loading Hikes

(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he expects the central bank to end its ‘’front-loading” of aggressive interest-rate hikes by early next year and shift to keeping policy sufficiently restrictive with small adjustments as inflation cools. “You do have to think about what the reasonable level is,” Bullard said […]

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A Post-Fed Rally Should Sow ‘Deep Suspicion’: Wall Street Reacts

(Bloomberg) — US stocks swung wildly and the rout in Treasuries eased after investors speculated that the Federal Reserve may have become as hawkish as it will be during its battle against inflation. The S&P 500 closed down 1.7% after gaining as much as 1.5% earlier on the day the Fed raised rates by 75 […]

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S&P 500 History Points to a Sharp Bounce After Fed Meeting

(Bloomberg) — For equity investors sunk in gloom, the interest rate rise expected from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday may actually yield some relief. US stock markets have been feeling the heat ahead of the Fed’s meeting, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 Indexes falling 6.2% and 7% respectively over the past six […]

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The Market Red Flags That Could Prompt the Fed to Slow Down on Rate Hikes

(Bloomberg) — Strategists are looking beyond the key issue of inflation for other potential market metrics that may cause the Federal Reserve to slow its aggressive cycle of interest-rate hikes. An ugly August reading for US consumer prices last week cemented bets on a third straight 75 basis-point move when the central bank hands down […]

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Rising Interest Rates

Gundlach Urges Fed to Slow Rate Hikes as Summers Prefers 1% Jump

(Bloomberg) — Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital is worried the Fed will choke off economic growth by raising interest rates too fast. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is among those saying the central bank needs to hike even faster to restore its credibility. Gundlach, the chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, believes the Fed will […]

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Jumbo Fed Rate Hike Is in Play as Powell Sticks to Hawkish View

(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials will not flinch in the battle to curb inflation, hardening expectations that they will deliver a third straight jumbo rate hike later this month. “We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing,” Powell said Thursday in remarks at the Cato Institute’s monetary […]

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Fed’s Waller Backs 75 Basis-Point Rate Hike, Says Bigger Move Hangs on Data

(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller backed raising rates by 75 basis points this month after a hot inflation report, prompting investors to pull back bets officials would hike by 100 basis points, though he said he could go bigger if warranted by the data. “With the CPI data in hand, I support another […]

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Traders Looking to Get Ahead of Fed Again Now Foresee Rate Cuts

(Bloomberg) — Signs of a rapidly deteriorating US economic outlook have spurred bond traders to pencil in a complete policy turnaround by the Federal Reserve in the coming year, with interest-rate cuts in the middle of 2023. Fed Chair Jerome Powell — who is widely expected to keep lifting the central bank’s benchmark rate for […]

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Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades

(Bloomberg) –Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell fired the starting gun for potentially the biggest and fastest tightening of global monetary policy in years. His hawkish shift included not ruling out U.S. rate hikes at every meeting for the rest of 2022. Over the next week, about a half dozen other central banks, including the Bank […]

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From BlackRock to Vanguard, Managers Move Before Fed Acts

(Bloomberg) — While the financial world waits for the Federal Reserve’s announcement on monetary policy Wednesday afternoon in Washington, some of the biggest bond-fund managers have already made their moves. They anticipate Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will confirm their expectations, based on his determined signaling that rates will rise for the first time since 2018, […]

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Cash
Cash Allocation
Fed Funds
Fed Rate Hikes

Traders Follow Goldman Call as Cash Piles Into March Rate Hike

(Bloomberg) — In the front-end of the U.S. rates curve, serious money is being put to work as traders position for the strong possibility that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at the March monetary policy meeting. The move follows a number of bank strategists adjusting forecasts and calling for the Fed to raise […]

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