(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve can’t pause its campaign of monetary policy tightening once its benchmark interest rate reaches 4.5% to 4.75% if “underlying” inflation is still accelerating, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said. “Core services inflation — which is the stickiest of all — keeps climbing, and we keep getting surprised on the upside,” […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Inflation shows few signs of cooling in the economy. The same cannot be said of markets, which are starting to seem like the only thing the Federal Reserve has going for it these days. Even with Thursday’s big bounce, the S&P 500 has lost a quarter of its value this year. Shocking as […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Commodities have opened the fourth quarter in some style, with prices posting the biggest weekly gain since March after OPEC+ agreed to chop oil supply. The coming week will bring a host of signals on the outlook over the rest of the year and into 2023 before earnings season hits full flood. In […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Unwavering profit projections. Benign chart patterns. Big hedges in the options market. All the things that bulls expected to put a brake on the worst equity selloff in 30 months have just summarily failed. The Federal Reserve, with an assist from UK policy makers, overpowered them all to deliver a week that rocked […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Another shock central bank move, another lockstep market reaction across Wall Street and beyond. This time it was the Bank of England’s dramatic intervention in government bonds that took global traders by storm, underscoring how every asset remains at the mercy of monetary officials in crisis-fighting mode. After British policy makers pledged a […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, sees a “long and ugly” recession in the US and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the S&P 500. “Even in a plain vanilla recession, the S&P 500 can fall by […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — For investors burned by inflation, a very bad year is starting to look even worse. As stock prices tumbled and bonds were hit with the deepest losses in decades, the surge in consumer prices turned a few corners of the financial markets into profitable refuges earlier this year. Oil prices rallied. Other commodities […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers argued against the Federal Reserve holding back from aggressive monetary tightening, saying that greater economic damage would result from any hesitation. “History records many, many instances when policy adjustments to inflation were excessively delayed and there were very substantial costs to that,” Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Investors, analyst and economists alike received a harsh reality check on Tuesday as inflation for the month of August topped expectations and sent US stocks tumbling by the most more than two weeks. The S&P 500 Index slumped as much as 2.7%, putting it on track to snap its longest winning streak in […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — US consumer prices were resurgent last month, dashing hopes of a nascent slowdown and likely assuring another historically large interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The consumer price index increased 0.1% from July, after no change in the prior month, Labor Department data showed Tuesday. From a year earlier, prices climbed 8.3%, a […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — The bond market is signaling that in the matter of the Federal Reserve versus inflation, its money is on the US central bank. Demand for inflation protection — as measured by yields on inflation-protected Treasury debt — keeps falling. The five-year expected inflation rate implied by those yields is back below 2.6%, down […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Three months after the Federal Reserve stopped reinvesting all of the maturing Treasury securities in its portfolio — allowing $30 billion a month to run off — its holdings of the debt ought to be lower by $90 billion. Soaring inflation is slowing that decline. That’s because the Fed’s Treasury holdings include inflation-protected […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Turkish inflation exceeded 80% for the first time since September 1998, as policies that prioritized economic growth and cheap lending exact a toll on the lira and price stability. Annual inflation quickened for a 15th consecutive month to 80.2% in August, up from 79.6% in July, according to data released on Monday by Turkey’s […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Rising food prices have been one of the key drivers of this year’s inflation woes as farmers across America face surging costs for fertilizer and fuel while also grappling with lingering supply-chain issues and labor shortages. Brian Duncan, operator of a family farm and vice president of the Illinois Farm Bureau, joined this […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Texas’s tax revenue is rising by historic amounts, in part as economic growth and soaring inflation drive up the price of goods. The Lone Star state collected $77.2 billion in a category known as all funds tax collections in the fiscal year through August, up 25.6% from the same period a year earlier, […]
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