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Credit Market Moves Toward Breaking Point as Investors Flee, Sales Flop

(Bloomberg) — Credit markets are starting to buckle under pressure from soaring yields and fund outflows, leaving strategists fearing a rupture as the economy slows. Banks this week had to pull a $4 billion leveraged buyout financing, while investors pushed back on a risky bankruptcy exit deal and buyers of repacked loans went on strike. […]

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Treasury Curve Inversion Deepens to Level Not Seen Since 2007

(Bloomberg) — One of the US bond market’s most widely watched indicators of potential recession risk has reached levels last seen in 2007. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped as much as 12 basis points below the 2-year rate, eclipsing the 9.5-basis-point gap reached in early April. The gap was pared to […]

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Trillions of Negative-Yielding Bonds Vanish

(Bloomberg) — After another wild week in global money markets, traders are betting big on the biggest regime shift in Europe in years: the end of the negative interest-rate era before 2022 is over. Fueled by a flurry of hawkish monetary signals over the past week, the interest-rate swaps market now projects the European Central […]

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In This Part of the U.S. Bond Market, 0% Is High and Alarming

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. bond market is hurtling toward the clearest sign yet that the Federal Reserve’s shift into a hawkish gear is making a difference — a real 10-year interest rate higher than 0%. While all Treasury yields have climbed this year as the Fed began what’s expected to be an aggressive series of […]

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Inverting Yield Curve Signals High Stakes for Fed and Investors

(Bloomberg) — Any hope that the Treasury market’s biggest quarterly loss had priced in a worst-case scenario for inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes is looking increasingly illusory. No sooner had the first quarter ended with a 5.6% loss for U.S. government bonds, the March employment data included a bigger-than-expected drop in the unemployment rate […]

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A Recession Warning Sign? Part of U.S. Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2006

(Bloomberg) — Treasuries slumped anew to send a widely-watched part of the U.S. yield curve to its first inversion in 16 years. The curve is flattening as investors bet the Federal Reserve will tighten policy rapidly enough to risk a sustained slowdown in growth. U.S. five-year yields climbed nine basis points to 2.63%, rising above […]

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Treasuries Haven’t Started a Year This Badly in Four Decades

(Bloomberg) — Six weeks into 2022 and it’s shaping up to be a grim year for fixed-income investors facing rising interest rates around the world. With the Federal Reserve preparing to hike rates next month after a bigger-than-expected jump in U.S. consumer prices, Treasuries have endured their worst start to a year in more than […]

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U.S. Yield Curve Flattens as Traders Mull Half-Point March Hike

(Bloomberg) — The Treasury yield curve flattened to the lowest level in over a year on Monday as the prospect of a super-sized Federal Reserve rate increase in March gained traction, weighing disproportionately on shorter-dated tenors. Two-year U.S. yields climbed 3 basis points to about 1.2% after Raphael Bostic, the president of the Fed’s Atlanta […]

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The Bond Market Is Watching for a Fed Mistake. Check the Yield Curve.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell. Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images The bond market is signaling that the Federal Reserve will soon have to abruptly lift interest rates, and that such a move could damage economic demand. Changes in bond yields suggest that this year’s surge in inflation has stuck around long enough […]

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Why U.S. stocks keep hitting records as yield curve flattens

U.S. stock benchmarks rose to record highs Thursday as investors appeared to shrug off concerns over growth and inflation as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Although rates are moving up and inflation is higher, that really isn’t being reflected in longer-term Treasury yields, Ralph Bassett, head of North American equities at abrdn told MarketWatch […]

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One Fund Manager Says Now Is The Best Time To Buy This Asset Since 2015

Markets are worried about inflation, but this portfolio manager says that concern is misplaced and it has created an environment that makes this asset particularly attractive now.

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