In 2023, one of the biggest questions that seems to overshadow the market is if interest rates will begin to decline this year. Employment has been of the biggest benchmarks the Fed has used to evaluate the need to raise, lower or maintain their interest rate policy over the last several years. Every month, the […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — There are encouraging signs that next year will be a better one for bond investors following brutal losses in 2022. After being smashed for much of this year by runaway inflation and breakneck interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, positive returns are making a comeback in Treasuries and the market is poised for […]
Read More(Bloomberg) —After a week to forget on Wall Street, the road gets even tougher for battle-weary investors with another hawkish policy gathering by the world’s most important central bank happening in the midst of what’s historically the worst month for US stock returns. Hedged-to-the-teeth stock managers are raising all manner of red flags for would-be […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital is worried the Fed will choke off economic growth by raising interest rates too fast. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is among those saying the central bank needs to hike even faster to restore its credibility. Gundlach, the chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, believes the Fed will […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — A big pandemic-era distortion in the world of finance is well and truly over — and the new normal is helping fuel the worst cross-asset selloff in decades. After being trapped in negative territory during the lockdown days, inflation-adjusted Treasury yields are again breaking out, with five- and 10-year measures back near multiyear […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve will unveil details of what policy makers debated last month that may shed light on how they view the near-term path for interest rates amid surging inflation and signs of a slowing economy. Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed could hike by either 50 basis points or 75 basis […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast. Zimbabwe’s central bank raised interest rates to a record and the government officially reintroduced the US dollar as legal currency to rein in surging inflation and stabilize the nation’s tumbling exchange rate. The monetary policy committee more […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — US house prices are likely to fall as mortgage rates exceeding 6% crimp affordability for the average buyer, according to Capital Economics. Property prices could contract an annual 5% by the middle of next year, Matthew Pointon, senior property economist, said in a research note Monday. He’d previously projected no change in values […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Canadian home prices fell for the first time in two years as a rapid rise in interest rates looks set to threaten one of the world’s hottest housing markets. Benchmark home prices declined 0.6% in April from the month before, the first drop since April 2020, according to data released Monday from the […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — The relentless bear market in U.S. Treasury debt is on the cusp of a new phase, with yields across much of the maturity spectrum on course to crack above their 2018 highs and several major potential catalysts to help such a move. Center stage will be April consumer price inflation on Wednesday, forecast […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to slow the pace of interest-rate increases after front-loading policy with half-point hikes next week and in June, economists surveyed by Bloomberg say. They expect the Federal Open Market Committee to raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points at the May 3-4 meeting and do […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — The bond market, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday, “is not looking like a very safe place to be.” Few investors would argue with that — except, perhaps, to call it an understatement. New waves of selling engulfed the Treasury market over the past week, roiling investors and analysts who’ve […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — The Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by half a percentage point in its biggest hike in more than two decades, and said it would stop buying government bonds to shrink its balance sheet as it moves aggressively to wrestle inflation down from a three-decade high. Policy makers led by Governor Tiff […]
Read More(Bloomberg) — What’s safer than short-duration bonds? Even shorter duration debt. As investors brace for an increasingly aggressive Federal Reserve, money is flooding into cash-like ETFs — which are seen as relatively less vulnerable to interest-rate risk. Traders have been piling into exchange-traded funds mostly focused on ultra-short instruments like Treasury bills, while offloading ETFs […]
Read MorePresident Joe Biden speaking about the January jobs report. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images Good news for Main Street, not so good news for Wall Street. Once again, a booming labor market is likely to translate to losses in bonds and stocks as the Fed and other major central banks remove the extraordinary stimulus enacted in response […]
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